US chronic absenteeism peaked at 28.3% of students in 2022 and has fallen every year since, but only to 22.6% in 2025, still about 1.5 times the 15% pre-pandemic baseline (22.6 / 15 = 1.51) (American Enterprise Institute, From Attendance Crisis to Chronic Condition, 2026). The recovery is also slowing: the national rate dropped nearly 3 points in 2023, just over 2 in 2024 and under 1 in 2025. RAND puts the 2024-25 count at about 10.8 million students, and no state has fully returned to its pre-pandemic level (FutureEd, 2026). This roundup focuses on the recovery curve, state and grade gaps, and what absence costs in learning; for the foundational definitions and long-run dropout research, see our earlier chronic absenteeism statistics. We aggregated data from the American Enterprise Institute’s Return to Learn tracker, FutureEd, RAND, Attendance Works, NWEA, peer-reviewed studies in PNAS, JAMA Network Open, Academic Pediatrics and the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, and state education agency data reported by The 74.
TL;DR
- 22.6% of students were chronically absent in 2025, down from a 28.3% peak in 2022 (AEI, From Attendance Crisis to Chronic Condition, 2026).
- Chronic absenteeism rose 13.5 points (91%) between 2018-19 and 2021-22, about 6.5 million more students (Dee, PNAS, 2024).
- About 10.8 million students (22%) were chronically absent in 2024-25 (RAND, RRA956-34, 2025).
- No state is fully back to pre-pandemic levels; Alabama is within one point (FutureEd tracker, 2026).
- Four jurisdictions were at 30% or higher in 2025: Alaska, DC, Oregon and New Mexico (AEI, 2026).
- Kindergarten absenteeism in 2025 was 48% above the 2019 baseline, third grade 70% above (AEI, 2026).
- Chronically absent California kindergartners were 7.2 times more likely to stay chronically absent in first grade (Attendance Works, 2026).
- Low-income students remain more than 9 points above 2018-19 levels across 27 states (FutureEd via The 74, 2026).
- 100% virtual instruction in 2020-21 was linked to 6.9 points higher chronic absence in 2021-22 (Evans et al., JAMA Network Open, 2024).
- 67% of youths who missed school cited sickness; 26% said missing three weeks is ‘mostly OK’ (RAND, 2025).
- High-absence districts were about 50% further from math recovery (NWEA, 2026).
- 37 states plus DC use chronic absence in ESSA accountability (Attendance Works, Bright Spots 2026).
1. The National Recovery Curve: Down From the Peak, Flattening Out
The post-pandemic story has two halves. The first was a shock: between 2018-19 and 2021-22, the share of US public school students chronically absent grew by 13.5 percentage points, a 91% increase that implies 6.5 million additional students (Thomas S. Dee, PNAS, 2024). A district-level panel of 11,017 school districts lands on the same 13.5-point jump, from a mean of 15.9% to 29.4% (Evans, Muchnick and Rosenlund, JAMA Network Open, 2024).
The second half is a recovery that is losing momentum. AEI’s Return to Learn data show the rate falling from 28.3% (2022) to 25.7% (2023), 23.5% (2024) and 22.6% (2025), with each annual decline smaller than the last (AEI, From Attendance Crisis to Chronic Condition, 2026). Nat Malkus titles it a shift from crisis to chronic condition, and the numbers back that framing: at under one point a year, the remaining gap to 15% would take years to close.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-pandemic chronic absenteeism (2018 and 2019) | About 15% | AEI, From Attendance Crisis to Chronic Condition (2026) |
| Peak rate, 2022 | 28.3% | AEI (2026) |
| Rate in 2023 / 2024 / 2025 | 25.7% / 23.5% / 22.6% | AEI (2026) |
| Annual declines, 2023 / 2024 / 2025 | Nearly 3 pts / just over 2 pts / just under 1 pt | AEI (2026) |
| Increase, 2018-19 to 2021-22 | +13.5 pts (+91%), about 6.5 million more students | Dee, PNAS (2024) |
| District mean rate, 2018-19 vs 2021-22 (11,017 districts) | 15.9% vs 29.4% | Evans et al., JAMA Network Open (2024) |
| Students chronically absent, 2023-24 / 2024-25 | About 19% (9.4 million) / about 22% (10.8 million) | RAND, RRA956-34 (2025) |
| Share of students chronically absent today vs before Covid | Nearly 1 in 4 vs 1 in 6 | Attendance Works, Bright Spots 2026 |
Context note: national estimates differ by method. AEI aggregates state-reported rates, while RAND estimates from a panel of 245 districts; RAND’s own figures moved from 19% to 22% between years, so treat the two series separately rather than splicing them. AEI’s earlier releases (28.5% in 2022, 25.4% in 2023, as reported by The 74 in August 2025) were revised in the 2026 report.
2. State Gaps: From 12% in Alabama to 30%+ in Four Jurisdictions
Where a student lives now matters as much as the national trend. In 2025, Alabama posted the lowest chronic absenteeism rate at 12%, while Alaska, the District of Columbia, Oregon and New Mexico were all at 30% or higher (AEI, 2026). Virginia, New Jersey, Idaho, Iowa, Delaware, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Tennessee and Indiana sat at or under 18%.
The direction of travel is not uniform either. Of the 44 states and DC with 2024-25 data, most improved, Iowa by nearly six points, but Colorado, Oklahoma, Mississippi, New Mexico and DC got worse, with Mississippi and New Mexico rising by more than three points (FutureEd, Tracking State Trends in Chronic Absenteeism, updated September 2026). New Mexico is the cautionary case: it led the 2023-24 improvers with a drop of roughly nine points, then jumped from 30% to 33% the next year (AEI data via The 74, February 2026).
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| States plus DC with 2024-25 data | 44 states and DC | FutureEd tracker (2026) |
| States fully back to pre-pandemic levels | None (Alabama within one point) | FutureEd tracker (2026) |
| Lowest state rate, 2025 | Alabama, 12% (peak 18% in 2022) | AEI (2026); Alabama Department of Education via The 74 (2026) |
| Jurisdictions at 30% or higher, 2025 | Alaska, DC, Oregon, New Mexico | AEI (2026) |
| Largest 2024-25 decline | Iowa, nearly 6 pts (21.6% to just below 16%) | FutureEd tracker (2026); The 74 (June 2026) |
| 2023-24 change, 45 states and DC | All but five declined; average drop about 2.5 pts; Nevada and New Mexico about 9 pts | FutureEd tracker (2026) |
| New Mexico, 2023-24 to 2024-25 | 30% to 33% | AEI Return to Learn via The 74 (2026) |
| Oklahoma, 2024-25 vs pre-pandemic | 19% vs 14% | Oklahoma report card via The 74 (June 2026) |
Context note: Iowa’s turnaround came with a law that notifies parents at 10% of a grading period missed, requires an attendance plan at 15% and refers families to the county attorney at 20%; Des Moines fell from 45.4% in 2021-22 to 21.2% three years later (The 74, June 2026).
3. Grade-Level Patterns: Kindergarten, Ninth Grade and Seniors
The most uncomfortable finding in the 2026 data is that the youngest students, who never experienced pandemic schooling, are still well above the old baseline. In 2025, kindergarten chronic absenteeism was 48% above the 2019 baseline, and first, second and third graders were 58%, 64% and 70% above it (AEI, 2026, grade-level data from 14 states covering about 9.4 million students). That points to a change in family attendance norms, not a lingering effect of closures.
California shows how sticky early absence is. Its kindergarten rate went from 15.6% in 2018-19 to 40.4% in 2020-21, then fell to 23.1% in both 2023-24 and 2024-25, and chronically absent kindergartners were 7.2 times more likely to be chronically absent again in first grade (Gee, Chang and Leong, Attendance Works, February 2026). At the other end, state data show absence spiking at transition years: nearly 58% of DC ninth graders were chronically absent in 2023-24, and Mississippi seniors hit 41% against a 24% statewide rate (The 74, February 2025).
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Kindergarten rate vs 2019 baseline, 2025 | +48% | AEI (2026) |
| Grades 1 / 2 / 3 vs 2019 baseline, 2025 | +58% / +64% / +70% | AEI (2026) |
| K-3 grade band vs 2019, 2025 | +6.8 pts (+59%) | AEI (2026) |
| California kindergarten rate, 2018-19 / 2020-21 / 2024-25 | 15.6% / 40.4% / 23.1% | Attendance Works, California K-1 Persistence (2026) |
| California students chronically absent in both K and 1st grade | 5.88% (2017-18 cohort) vs 15.27% (2022-23 cohort) | Attendance Works (2026) |
| DC ninth graders chronically absent, 2023-24 | Nearly 58% | DC state data via The 74 (2025) |
| Mississippi seniors vs statewide, 2023-24 | 41% vs 24% | Mississippi state data via The 74 (2025) |
| Michigan kindergarten, pre-pandemic / 2021-22 / 2023-24 | 22% / 45% / 33% | Michigan state data via The 74 (2025) |
Context note: Canada saw the same early-grade shift. A study of 513,159 kindergartners found chronic absenteeism rose from 17.7% before Covid to 41.3% after, and a larger share of chronically absent children now live in higher-SES neighborhoods (Reid-Westoby et al., PLoS One, 2026). Districts tracking text-message outreach also see a 3.3-point jump between fifth and sixth grade (SchoolStatus analysis via The 74, 2025).
4. Who Is Still Missing School: Income, Race and English Learners
The recovery has been uneven, and the groups hit hardest in 2022 remain furthest from baseline. Across 27 states, chronic absenteeism among low-income students rose by more than 17 points between 2018-19 and 2021-22, versus 13 points overall, and in 2024-25 it remains more than 9 points above pre-pandemic levels (FutureEd analysis via The 74, March 2026). The income gap widened from about 7 to 9 points; in Ohio, roughly 33% of low-income students were chronically absent in 2024-25 versus 11% of more affluent peers.
The same pattern runs by district. In 2019 the lowest-achieving third of districts had a 19% rate and the highest-achieving third 10%; by 2022 those were 35% and 20%, and by 2025 27.3% and 14% (AEI, 2026). Urban districts carry the extreme cases: nearly half reported that 30% or more of their students were chronically absent, making them roughly five to six times more likely than rural and suburban districts to report extreme levels (RAND, Chronic Absenteeism Still a Struggle in 2024-2025). Students with disabilities face many of the same barriers; our special education IEP statistics cover that population.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Low-income increase, 2018-19 to 2021-22 (27 states) | +17 pts vs +13 pts statewide | FutureEd via The 74 (2026) |
| Low-income rate, 2024-25 vs 2018-19 | More than 9 pts higher | FutureEd via The 74 (2026) |
| Ohio low-income vs more affluent, 2024-25 | About 33% vs 11% | FutureEd via The 74 (2026) |
| English learners, 2024-25 vs 2018-19 | About 11 pts higher (peak rise 16.5 pts) | FutureEd via The 74 (2026) |
| Black / Hispanic / White pandemic rise | About 16 / 16.5 / 10 pts | FutureEd via The 74 (2026) |
| DC White vs Black students | About 9% vs nearly 49% | FutureEd via The 74 (2026) |
| Low- vs high-achieving districts, 2019 / 2022 / 2025 | 19% vs 10% / 35% vs 20% / 27.3% vs 14% | AEI (2026) |
| North Carolina poverty gap, pre-pandemic vs 2023 | 9.2 pts vs 14.6 pts | Kirksey, Polikoff et al. via The 74 (2025) |
Context note: in California, 28.38% of Black students and 23.83% of homeless students in the 2022-23 cohort were chronically absent in both kindergarten and first grade (Attendance Works, 2026).
5. Why Students Miss School: Illness, Norms, Virtual Learning and Raids
Survey data point to sickness and attitude rather than a single crisis. In RAND’s spring 2025 youth survey, 67% of young people who missed school cited sickness, far ahead of feeling down or anxious (10%) and oversleeping (9%), and 26% said missing three weeks of school is ‘mostly OK’ (RAND, American Youth Panel, 2025). That share rises to one-third among students whose parents did not continue education after high school. A caregiver survey in one northeastern urban district found 71% named health as the primary reason for absences and 18% social barriers such as transportation and housing (Shankar et al., Academic Pediatrics, 2025). The mental health side is tracked in our student mental health statistics.
Structural causes show up in the research too. Dee found state increases tracked 2020-21 school closures but not Covid case rates, masking policies, enrollment loss or declines in youth mental health (PNAS, 2024). Districts that were 100% virtual in 2020-21 had chronic absence rates 6.9 points higher the next year, rising to 10.6 points in the poorest districts, while hybrid instruction showed no link (JAMA Network Open, 2024); our virtual school statistics cover where remote models went next. And in 2025, unexpected immigration raids raised daily absences by 22% in five California Central Valley districts (Dee, Stanford, Recent Immigration Raids Increased Student Absences, 2025).
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Youths citing sickness / anxiety / oversleeping as reason for missing | 67% / 10% / 9% | RAND, RRA956-34 (2025) |
| Youths saying missing three weeks is ‘mostly OK’ | 26% (one-third if parents had only high school) | RAND, RRA956-34 (2025) |
| Caregivers citing health / social reasons (5,223 records) | 71% / 18%; nearly 10% both | Shankar et al., Academic Pediatrics (2025) |
| Chronic absence linked to 100% virtual learning in 2020-21 | +6.9 pts (+10.6 pts in highest-poverty districts) | Evans et al., JAMA Network Open (2024) |
| Factors not associated with state increases | Case rates, masking, enrollment loss, youth mental health declines | Dee, PNAS (2024) |
| Rise in daily absences after immigration raids (5 districts) | +22%; over 725,000 student days lost | Dee, Stanford (2025) |
| Additional absences per student over half a school year | 1.4 | Dee, Stanford (2025) |
Context note: the RAND reasons are self-reported by youths ages 12 to 21, and the Shankar data come from caregivers of chronically absent students in a single district, so neither is a national cause breakdown.
6. The Cost in Learning: Recovery Gaps and NAEP
Attendance is now one of the clearest predictors of which districts are recovering academically. NWEA found that districts with consistently high absenteeism were about 50% further from math recovery than districts that never had high absenteeism, 0.17 versus 0.11 standard deviations below pre-pandemic achievement (NWEA, Chronic Absenteeism: A Continued Impediment to Academic Recovery, July 2026). The reading gap was smaller (0.13 versus 0.11), consistent with the NWEA researchers’ point that math is learned mostly in the classroom.
The poverty overlay is sharp: among mid- and high-poverty districts, high absenteeism meant about 40% further from math recovery, while low-poverty districts recovered similarly regardless of attendance. NAEP 2024 questionnaire data reported by The 74 show the same split at the student level: 45% of bottom-quartile fourth graders missed three or more days in the previous month versus 20% of top-quartile students (The 74, February 2025). Teacher turnover compounds the disruption in the same schools; see our K-12 teacher attrition statistics.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Math gap vs pre-pandemic, high vs never-high absence districts | 0.17 SD vs 0.11 SD (about 50% further) | NWEA research brief (2026) |
| Reading gap, high vs never-high absence districts | 0.13 SD vs 0.11 SD | NWEA research brief (2026) |
| Math recovery penalty in mid- and high-poverty districts | About 40% further from recovery | NWEA research brief (2026) |
| Students missing at least one day every other week | 1 in 4 overall; 1 in 3 in high-poverty districts | NWEA research brief (2026) |
| Sample | 2,000 districts, grades 3 to 8, 2019 to 2024 | NWEA research brief (2026) |
| NAEP 2024 grade 4: no days missed, top vs bottom quartile | 49% vs 26% | NAEP 2024 questionnaire via The 74 (2025) |
| NAEP 2024: 3+ days missed, bottom vs top quartile | 45% vs 20% | NAEP 2024 questionnaire via The 74 (2025) |
| NAEP 2024 grade 8: more than 10 days missed, lowest vs top math scorers | 7% vs 1% | NAEP 2024 questionnaire via The 74 (2025) |
Context note: these are associations, not causal estimates. AEI research reported by The 74 attributes about 8% of pandemic learning loss to chronic absenteeism alone; that analysis was described as forthcoming at the time.
7. The Policy Response: Data, Accountability and What Works
States have built far more attendance infrastructure than they had before Covid. In 2010 only Maryland published absenteeism data on its state education agency website; by 2025, 49 states did (Attendance Works via The 74, June 2025). Today 37 states and DC use chronic absence in ESSA accountability, and 31 states publish prevention-oriented guidance, up from 21 the year before (Attendance Works, Beyond the Roll Call, sixth annual review, June 2026). The data still have holes: only 19 states report by grade level, and 32 collect excused versus unexcused status but just 7 publish it.
Targets are ambitious relative to the pace. Eighteen states have adopted the goal of halving absenteeism from 2022 levels by 2027, yet only 29% of students are in districts on track to hit it; Vermont leads with 81% of students in on-track districts, followed by Nevada (66%) and California (65%) (AEI, 2026). Evidence for low-cost interventions exists: Michigan’s Pathways to Potential, which placed caseworkers in schools, cut chronic absenteeism by 7.88% across 160 schools, about 21 fewer chronically absent students per school per year (Sokol et al., Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 2026).
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| States publishing chronic absence data | 49 (only Maryland in 2010) | Attendance Works, Bright Spots 2026; via The 74 (2025) |
| States using chronic absence in ESSA accountability | 37 states and DC | Attendance Works, Bright Spots 2026 |
| States with prior-year data published by October | 25 (Oct 2025) vs 18 (Oct 2024) | Attendance Works, Bright Spots 2026 |
| States reporting by grade / for homeless students | 19 / 32 | Attendance Works, Bright Spots 2026 |
| States committed to cutting chronic absence at least 50% | 19 (Attendance Works); 18 formally adopted (AEI) | Attendance Works (2026); AEI (2026) |
| Students in districts on track for the 50% goal | 29% (Vermont 81%, Nevada 66%, California 65%) | AEI (2026) |
| Districts ranking chronic absence among top three challenges | 4 in 10 | RAND, RRA956-34 (2025) |
| Michigan school caseworker program effect | -7.88%, about 21 fewer students per school per year | Sokol et al., JECH (2026) |
Context note: some states are moving the other way. Oklahoma announced in 2026 that chronic absenteeism will no longer count against schools in its accountability system, and Arkansas removed it in 2024 (The 74, June 2026). In a vendor analysis of 3.3 million parent text messages across 15 states, early letters to families reduced absence rates by 28% (SchoolStatus via The 74, 2025).
Summary: K-12 Chronic Absenteeism by the Numbers
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| National rate, 2025 | 22.6% | AEI (2026) |
| Peak rate, 2022 | 28.3% | AEI (2026) |
| Pre-pandemic baseline | About 15% | AEI (2026) |
| Pandemic increase, 2018-19 to 2021-22 | +13.5 pts (+91%), 6.5 million students | Dee, PNAS (2024) |
| Students chronically absent, 2024-25 | About 10.8 million (22%) | RAND (2025) |
| States back to pre-pandemic levels | None | FutureEd tracker (2026) |
| Lowest state, 2025 | Alabama, 12% | AEI (2026) |
| Jurisdictions at 30%+ | Alaska, DC, Oregon, New Mexico | AEI (2026) |
| Largest 2024-25 improvement | Iowa, nearly 6 pts | FutureEd tracker (2026) |
| Kindergarten vs 2019 baseline, 2025 | +48% | AEI (2026) |
| K-1 persistence, California | 7.2x more likely | Attendance Works (2026) |
| DC ninth graders chronically absent, 2023-24 | Nearly 58% | The 74 (2025) |
| Low-income students vs 2018-19 | More than 9 pts higher | FutureEd via The 74 (2026) |
| Urban districts with extreme (30%+) absence | Nearly half | RAND (2025) |
| Youths citing sickness | 67% | RAND (2025) |
| Virtual learning effect, 2021-22 | +6.9 pts | Evans et al., JAMA Network Open (2024) |
| Math recovery gap, high-absence districts | 0.17 SD vs 0.11 SD | NWEA (2026) |
| States using chronic absence in accountability | 37 + DC | Attendance Works (2026) |
| Students in districts on track to halve absence | 29% | AEI (2026) |
Methodology and Sources
Every figure above was read during research for this article in a primary report, a peer-reviewed abstract or a news article that names its underlying study or state dataset. Several primary pages blocked automated access (the US Department of Education data story, RAND’s search, PNAS, and some PDFs), so some figures were read through plain-text mirrors or abstract databases (Europe PMC) and are cited to the original document. Figures that appeared only without a named source were dropped.
- American Enterprise Institute: Nat Malkus, From Attendance Crisis to Chronic Condition: Tracking Post-Pandemic Chronic Absenteeism Into 2025 (2026) and the Return to Learn tracker
- FutureEd: Tracking State Trends in Chronic Absenteeism (Moon and DiMarco, updated September 2026)
- RAND: Chronic Absenteeism Still a Struggle in 2024-2025, American School District Panel and American Youth Panel (August 2025)
- Attendance Works: Beyond the Roll Call, sixth annual review of state attendance policy (June 2026), Persistence of Chronic Absence Between Kindergarten and 1st Grade in California (February 2026)
- NWEA: Chronic Absenteeism: A Continued Impediment to Academic Recovery (Postell, Morton and Kuhfeld, July 2026)
- Peer-reviewed: Dee, Higher chronic absenteeism threatens academic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, PNAS (2024); Evans, Muchnick and Rosenlund, JAMA Network Open (2024); Shankar et al., Academic Pediatrics (2025); Sokol et al., Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health (2026); Reid-Westoby et al., PLoS One (2026)
- Working paper: Thomas S. Dee, Recent Immigration Raids Increased Student Absences (Stanford, 2025)
- Reporting on named studies and state data: The 74 on FutureEd’s 27-state subgroup analysis (March 2026), grade-level state data (February 2025), NAEP 2024 questionnaire results (February 2025), Iowa (June 2026), Oklahoma (June 2026), Alabama and New Mexico (February 2026), North Carolina research and state data publishing (June 2025) and AEI revisions and SchoolStatus data (August 2025)
- Data watch: National series conflict by method and vintage. AEI’s 2026 report gives 28.3% (2022), 25.7% (2023), 23.5% (2024) and 22.6% (2025), while earlier AEI releases reported 28.5% and 25.4% for 2022 and 2023, the Return to Learn homepage rounds 2025 to 24%, and The 74’s own 40-state tally put 2025 at 23%. RAND’s district-panel estimates (19% in 2023-24, 22% in 2024-25) move in the opposite direction from state-reported data and should not be combined with AEI’s series. The number of states using chronic absence in ESSA accountability is 37 plus DC per Attendance Works (2026) but 38 per The 74 (2026), and the 50% goal count is 19 states (Attendance Works) versus 18 formally adopted (AEI). FutureEd’s state table could not be read in full, so state rates come from AEI and state data reported by The 74. NAEP 2024 figures were read through The 74, not the NAEP data explorer. SchoolStatus is a vendor analysis of its own customers. Federal (ED/CRDC) chronic absence files could not be accessed; the most recent federal national counts would be older than the state-reported series above.
Last updated: October 3, 2026. We update this roundup quarterly, and the next refresh is expected when AEI’s Return to Learn tracker and FutureEd add the remaining states’ 2024-25 data and the first 2025-26 state attendance releases arrive.