About 40% of American fourth graders read below the NAEP Basic level in 2024, the largest share since 2002, and 33% of eighth graders did, the largest share ever recorded (National Assessment Governing Board, 2024 Nation’s Report Card). That result landed in the middle of the biggest wave of reading legislation in US history: 43 states plus the District of Columbia now have science of reading laws or policies (Education Week, August 2026), up from 31 plus DC in May 2023. The states that moved first show what the policy can and cannot do: Mississippi’s fourth graders scored 219 against a national public average of 214, while Florida fell 7 points in two years. England, which made phonics testing statutory in 2012, has been stuck at an 80% pass rate for three years. For the adult end of the same problem, see our literacy statistics. We aggregated data from NCES and the National Assessment Governing Board, Education Week and RAND, the UK Department for Education, the National Reading Panel, the What Works Clearinghouse, FutureEd, ExcelinEd and the other primary sources listed in the methodology.
TL;DR
- 40% of fourth graders and 33% of eighth graders scored below NAEP Basic in reading in 2024 (NAGB, 2024 Nation’s Report Card).
- 31% of fourth graders reached NAEP Proficient or above in 2024 (NCES, NAEP Reading 2024).
- No state improved its reading score in either grade compared with 2022 (NAGB, 2024).
- Louisiana was the only state to beat its 2019 fourth grade reading score (NAGB, 2024).
- 43 states plus DC have passed science of reading laws or policies since 2013 (Education Week tracker, August 2026).
- At least 14 states ban three-cueing materials (Education Week, September 2026).
- Mississippi fourth graders scored 219 vs a national public average of 214 (NCES, 2024 State Snapshot).
- Mississippi ranked 9th in fourth grade reading in 2024, up from 49th in 2013 (ExcelinEd, 2025).
- Florida’s fourth grade score fell from 225 to 218 between 2022 and 2024 (NCES, 2024 State Snapshot).
- 80% of Year 1 pupils in England passed the phonics check in 2025, vs 58% in 2012 (DfE, 2024/25).
- England’s government has set a 90% phonics pass target (The Conversation, 2025).
- Only 4% of K-2 teachers recommend context clues for unknown words (RAND survey via Education Week, 2025).
1. National Reading Outcomes: The NAEP 2024 Baseline
The 2024 Nation’s Report Card is the scoreboard every reading law will be judged against, and it is not flattering. Average scores fell 2 points in both grades compared with 2022, and the decline was concentrated at the bottom: 40% of fourth graders and 33% of eighth graders scored below NAEP Basic (National Assessment Governing Board, 10 Takeaways from the 2024 NAEP). The fourth grade average is now not significantly different from the first assessment in 1992, but that flat line hides a split. Students at the 75th and 90th percentiles score higher than in 1992, while the 10th and 25th percentiles score lower (NCES, NAEP Reading 2024 National Trends).
That split is exactly the population structured phonics is designed for. The children who struggle to decode are the ones losing ground, which is why the policy debate shifted from ‘which philosophy’ to ‘which students are failing to learn the code’. The drop also predates COVID: the NCES commissioner told Education Week ‘this is not just a pandemic story’, and the 2022 long-term trend test had already shown age 9 reading falling 5 points, from 220 to 215, the largest drop since 1990 (NCES, NAEP Long-Term Trend 2022).
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Fourth graders below NAEP Basic, 2024 | About 40% (largest share since 2002) | NAGB, 2024 Nation’s Report Card |
| Eighth graders below NAEP Basic, 2024 | 33% (largest share ever) | NAGB, 2024 Nation’s Report Card |
| Fourth graders at or above Proficient / Basic / Advanced | 31% / 60% / 8% | NCES, NAEP Reading 2024 |
| Score change vs 2022, grades 4 and 8 | -2 points each | NAGB press release, January 2025 |
| States with reading gains vs 2022 | 0 (either grade) | NAGB, 2024 |
| Gap between lowest and highest performers | About 100 scale points | NAGB, 2024 |
| Age 9 reading, long-term trend, 2020 to 2022 | 220 to 215 (-5, largest drop since 1990) | NCES, NAEP Long-Term Trend 2022 |
| Eighth graders missing 5+ days a month | 11% (16% in 2022, 7% in 2019) | NAEP 2024 via The Hechinger Report |
Context note: state tests paint a rosier picture. In three-quarters of states, state reading proficiency rates were at least 15 percentage points higher than NAEP for fourth or eighth grade, and Virginia reported 72% of eighth graders proficient on its own test versus about 36% on NAEP (FutureEd, 2025). FutureEd’s public-school figures put fourth grade proficiency at 30% in 2024, down from 32% in 2022 and 34% in 2019, and eighth grade at 29%.
2. The Policy Wave: Science of Reading Laws by the Numbers
Legislation has moved faster than any outcome data can. Education Week’s tracker counts 43 states plus DC with evidence-based reading laws or policies since 2013, as of August 2026 (Education Week state tracker), up from 31 plus DC in May 2023 (Education Week, May 2023). That is 12 additional states in roughly three years. In 2023 only three states (Arkansas, Louisiana and Indiana) banned three-cueing, the practice of guessing words from pictures and context; by September 2026 at least 14 did, and the US House passed H.R. 7890 to push the approach nationally (Education Week, September 2026).
The laws are not uniform, and the differences matter more than the count. Only 12 states plus DC require curriculum materials alongside teacher training, and roughly 10 states keep an approved materials list (EdWeek Market Brief, October 2025). Louisiana sits at the far end: over 90% of its teachers use the same state-vetted ELA curriculum (Fordham Institute, 2025). California, the largest system, signed AB 1454 on October 9, 2025, covering 2.6 million elementary-age children, with 200 million dollars proposed for training (Education Week, June 2025). Laws that train teachers without changing the materials in front of them are the weakest version of the policy, a tension also visible in our teacher shortage statistics.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| States with science of reading laws or policies | 43 + DC (August 2026) | Education Week state tracker |
| States with such laws, May 2023 | 31 + DC | Education Week, May 2023 |
| States passing laws in the two years to April 2025 | 23 | Education Week, April 2025 |
| States banning three-cueing materials | At least 14 (2026), up from 3 (2023) | Education Week, September 2026 and May 2023 |
| States requiring curriculum materials alongside training | 12 + DC | Education Week, April 2025 |
| States with approved or adopted materials lists | About 10 | EdWeek Market Brief, October 2025 |
| Federal Comprehensive Literacy State Development grants | 194 million dollars, 23 states | Education Week, September 2026 |
| California AB 1454 training funding (proposed) | 200 million dollars, 2.6 million children | Education Week, June 2025 |
Context note: counts vary by definition. Whiteboard Advisors put the total at 44 states plus DC in October 2025 (Whiteboard Advisors), and Fordham listed nine states that legislated in 2025 alone, including California, New York and Pennsylvania. Alabama added a 10 million dollar budget line to extend literacy work to grades 4 to 8 (EdWeek Market Brief, October 2025), and Indiana committed 111 million dollars to literacy coaching (ExcelinEd, 2025).
3. State Outcomes: Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida and Alabama
The Southern states that legislated early are the only real natural experiment, and their 2024 results diverge sharply. Mississippi fourth graders scored 219, above the national public average of 214, up from 203 in 1998 (NCES, 2024 Reading State Snapshot: Mississippi). Over the same span the nation moved from 213 to 214, so Mississippi gained 16 points (219 - 203) against the nation’s 1. ExcelinEd reports the state ranked 9th in fourth grade reading in 2024 after ranking 49th in 2013, the year it passed its Literacy-Based Promotion Act and began investing in reading coaches (ExcelinEd, 2025).
Louisiana followed a curriculum-first route and was the only state to exceed its 2019 fourth grade score, rising from 212 in 2022 to 216 in 2024 (NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Louisiana). Florida is the cautionary tale: its fourth grade average fell 7 points, from 225 to 218, and the share below Basic rose from 29% to 38% (NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Florida), even though it still scores above the nation. Alabama was flat at 213 with 28% proficient (NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Alabama). Early gains are real but not self-sustaining.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi grade 4 average score | 219 (2024), 217 (2022), 203 (1998) | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Mississippi |
| Mississippi grade 4 at or above Proficient | 32% (17% in 1998) | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Mississippi |
| Mississippi grade 4 below Basic | 35% vs 41% nation (public); 53% in 1998 | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Mississippi |
| Louisiana grade 4 average score / Proficient | 216 (212 in 2022) / 32% (28% in 2022) | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Louisiana |
| Louisiana grade 4 reading rank | 15th (41st in 2022, 49th in 2019) | ExcelinEd, 2025 |
| Florida grade 4 average score / Proficient | 218 (225 in 2022) / 33% (39% in 2022) | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Florida |
| Alabama grade 4 average score / Proficient | 213 (213 in 2022) / 28% | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Alabama |
| Mississippi grade 8 average score | 253 vs 257 national, unchanged from 2022 | Mississippi First, 2025 |
Context note: Mississippi’s eighth grade results show the limit of an early-grades policy. The state still trails the nation by 4 points in eighth grade and ranks 41st (Oxford Eagle, citing Mississippi Department of Education, 2025), although that is its smallest gap ever (Mississippi First). Tennessee rose to 23rd in fourth grade reading from 35th in 2022, and Indiana ranks 6th (ExcelinEd, 2025).
4. Equity: Who Gains When Phonics Becomes Policy
The strongest argument for structured phonics is distributional, and Mississippi supplies most of the evidence. Economically disadvantaged students are 75% of the state’s fourth graders, and they rank No. 1 in the nation for their group in fourth grade reading, with Hispanic students also No. 1 and Black students No. 3 (Oxford Eagle, January 2025). Analyst Chad Aldeman, working from NAEP data, found Mississippi was the only state to gain at every performance level in fourth grade reading over ten years, with its lowest performers up 9 points while those nationally fell 10 to 30 points (Chad Aldeman, NAEP Winners and Losers).
Rank gains are not the same as closed gaps, though. Mississippi’s Black-White gap was 25 points in 2024, statistically unchanged from 26 in 1998, and its income gap held at 26 points. Florida is the state where gaps narrowed significantly: its Black-White gap fell from 31 to 23 points and its income gap from 29 to 20. Everyone rose in Mississippi; in Florida the gaps closed but the average fell. Students with dyslexia sit inside these numbers too, as our dyslexia statistics show.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi economically disadvantaged fourth graders | 75% of students, average 212, 24% Proficient | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Mississippi |
| Mississippi national rank by subgroup, grade 4 reading | No. 1 low-income, No. 1 Hispanic, No. 3 Black | Oxford Eagle, citing MDE, 2025 |
| Mississippi Black-White score gap | 25 points (26 in 1998, not significantly different) | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Mississippi |
| Louisiana Black-White score gap | 32 points (38 in 1998, not significantly different) | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Louisiana |
| Florida Black-White / income score gap | 23 (31 in 1998) / 20 (29 in 1998), both narrower | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Florida |
| Alabama income score gap | 30 points (29 in 1998) | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot: Alabama |
| National bottom quartile of readers | Over two-thirds economically disadvantaged; one-third with disabilities | NAEP 2024 via The Hechinger Report |
Context note: subgroup rankings from state agencies compare students of the same group across states and are not adjusted for other factors. Rankings for Mississippi overall also vary by method (9th per ExcelinEd, 7th per Aldeman), so treat them as directional.
5. England’s Phonics Screening Check: 13 Years of Data
England is the longest-running national test of mandated phonics. Since 2012 Year 1 pupils have taken the check, and they need 32 out of 40 marks to pass. The pass rate jumped from 58% in 2012 to 82% by 2019, then stalled at 80% in 2023, 2024 and 2025 (Department for Education, Phonics screening check attainment 2024/25). The first decade of gains came from adoption; the last points are about the children the method has not yet reached. The government’s new 90% target means closing most of that remaining gap, a goal researchers writing in The Conversation call ‘almost impossible’.
The breakdowns show who is left. Disadvantaged pupils pass at 67% against 84% for others, a 17 point gap that widened by 1 point in 2025; pupils with special educational needs pass at 43%, and only 20% of those with an education, health and care plan. Age is a hidden driver: 73% of August-born children pass versus 86% of September-born children, a 14 point gap from being nearly a year younger.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 pupils meeting expected standard | 80% (2025), 80% (2024), 75% (2022), 82% (2019), 58% (2012) | DfE, Phonics screening check 2024/25 |
| Meeting standard by end of Year 2 | 89% (2025) | DfE, 2024/25 |
| Disadvantaged vs other pupils | 67% vs 84% (17 point gap) | DfE, 2024/25 |
| Boys vs girls | 76% vs 84% | DfE, 2024/25 |
| Pupils with SEN / with EHC plan | 43% / 20% | DfE, 2024/25 |
| August-born vs September-born | 73% vs 86% | DfE, 2024/25 |
| Region / local authority range | London 82% to North East and North West 78%; Richmond upon Thames 89% to Manchester 74% | DfE, 2024/25 |
| Government phonics pass target | 90% | The Conversation, 2025 |
Context note: results cover 15,865 state-funded mainstream primary schools. Downstream reading has held up better than phonics: 75% of pupils met the expected standard in key stage 2 reading in 2025, up from 73% in 2019 and the only subject above its pre-pandemic level, and 33% reached the higher standard, the most since 2016 (DfE, Key stage 2 attainment 2024/25). The Conversation gives the August-born pass rate as 73% vs 84% for September-born; we cite the DfE figure.
6. Classroom Practice and the Evidence Base
Laws only matter if instruction changes, and the best survey says it has. A RAND survey of more than 1,800 K-5 teachers in spring 2024 found just 4% of K-2 teachers tell students to use context clues for unknown words, while 69% tell them to sound out the letters (Education Week, April 2025). Three-quarters of K-2 teachers received foundational reading training in 2023-24. The gap is materials: between a quarter and a third of K-2 teachers lack materials that support phonics, phonemic awareness or fluency.
The research base these laws cite is older than most of the students they cover. The National Reading Panel screened 1,373 phonics studies in 2000 and meta-analyzed 66 treatment-control comparisons from 38 of them, finding systematic phonics helped students from kindergarten through 6th grade. The What Works Clearinghouse K-3 practice guide rates two of its four recommendations, sound-letter awareness and decoding, as backed by strong evidence, and its academic language recommendation as minimal. Phonics has the strongest evidence; comprehension and vocabulary instruction rest on thinner ground. Read-aloud and assistive tools (see our text-to-speech statistics) support access to text but are not a substitute for decoding instruction.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| K-2 / grade 3-5 teachers trained on foundational skills, 2023-24 | 75% / 66% | RAND survey via Education Week, April 2025 |
| K-2 / grade 3-5 teachers who tell students to sound out words | 69% / 45% | RAND survey via Education Week, April 2025 |
| K-2 / grade 3-5 teachers who recommend context clues | 4% / 10% | RAND survey via Education Week, April 2025 |
| K-2 teachers lacking aligned materials | One-quarter to one-third | RAND survey via Education Week, April 2025 |
| National Reading Panel phonics meta-analysis | 1,373 studies screened, 38 included, 66 comparisons | National Reading Panel, 2000 |
| National Reading Panel phonemic awareness meta-analysis | 52 studies, 96 comparisons | National Reading Panel, 2000 |
| WWC K-3 recommendations rated strong evidence | 2 of 4 (sound awareness, decoding) | What Works Clearinghouse, 2016 (rev. 2019) |
Context note: England codifies the same evidence in its Reading Framework, first published in July 2021 and extended to Year 9 in July 2023 with input from 34 English hubs (DfE, The reading framework); its list of validated systematic synthetic phonics programmes was last updated on 16 February 2026 (DfE, Choosing a phonics teaching programme). Teachers in states that require training were 8 percentage points more likely to teach morphemes, the RAND survey found. Schools adding tutoring on top of core instruction are tracked in our AI tutoring statistics.
Summary: Science of Reading & Phonics Outcomes by the Numbers
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Fourth graders below NAEP Basic | About 40% (2024) | NAGB, 2024 Nation’s Report Card |
| Eighth graders below NAEP Basic | 33% (2024, highest ever) | NAGB, 2024 |
| Fourth graders at or above Proficient | 31% (2024) | NCES, NAEP Reading 2024 |
| States with reading gains vs 2022 | 0 | NAGB, 2024 |
| Age 9 long-term trend drop, 2020 to 2022 | -5 points | NCES, NAEP LTT 2022 |
| States where state test proficiency exceeds NAEP by 15+ points | About three-quarters | FutureEd, 2025 |
| States with science of reading laws | 43 + DC | Education Week, August 2026 |
| States banning three-cueing | At least 14 | Education Week, September 2026 |
| Federal CLSD literacy grants | 194 million dollars, 23 states | Education Week, September 2026 |
| Mississippi grade 4 score | 219 vs 214 nation | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot |
| Mississippi grade 4 rank | 9th (49th in 2013) | ExcelinEd, 2025 |
| Louisiana grade 4 score | 216, only state above 2019 | NCES and NAGB, 2024 |
| Florida grade 4 score | 218, down from 225 | NCES, 2024 State Snapshot |
| England Year 1 phonics pass rate | 80% (2025), 58% (2012) | DfE, 2024/25 |
| England phonics pass rate by end of Year 2 | 89% | DfE, 2024/25 |
| England disadvantaged phonics gap | 17 points | DfE, 2024/25 |
| England key stage 2 reading expected standard | 75% (2025) | DfE, 2024/25 |
| K-2 teachers recommending context clues | 4% | RAND via Education Week, 2025 |
| National Reading Panel phonics comparisons | 66 from 38 studies | National Reading Panel, 2000 |
Methodology and Sources
Every figure above was read during research for this article, and state results were taken from the official NCES state snapshot reports rather than secondary summaries. Where a primary page blocked automated access (the RAND report, the Education Endowment Foundation, NCTQ and the Mississippi Department of Education), we used reporting that names the original study and say so below. Statistics that circulate on reading-program vendor blogs without a primary document were excluded.
- National Assessment Governing Board: 10 Takeaways from the 2024 NAEP, 2024 Nation’s Report Card press release
- NCES: NAEP Reading 2024 National Trends, NAEP Long-Term Trend 2022, 2024 Reading State Snapshots for Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida and Alabama
- Education Week: state science of reading tracker (updated August 2026), federal bill passes the House (September 2026), RAND teacher survey (April 2025), California AB 1454 (June 2025), four more states (May 2023), EdWeek Market Brief (October 2025)
- Policy analysis: FutureEd, NAEP standards gap (2025), ExcelinEd, policy lessons (March 2025), Fordham Institute (2025), Whiteboard Advisors (October 2025), Mississippi First (2025), Chad Aldeman, NAEP Winners and Losers
- Reporting on NAEP data: The Hechinger Report (January 2025), Oxford Eagle citing the Mississippi Department of Education (January 2025)
- UK Department for Education: Phonics screening check attainment 2024/25, Key stage 2 attainment 2024/25, The reading framework, Choosing a phonics teaching programme; 90% target via The Conversation
- Research base: National Reading Panel findings (2000), What Works Clearinghouse, Foundational Skills K-3 practice guide
- Data watch: The national 31% Proficient and 40% below Basic figures cover all US students, while the state snapshots compare against the national public-school average (30% Proficient, 41% below Basic), and FutureEd also uses public-school figures; the two sets are not interchangeable. State law counts depend on definitions: Education Week counts 43 states plus DC (August 2026), Whiteboard Advisors 44 plus DC (October 2025), and older articles ‘more than 30’ or ‘more than 40’. Mississippi’s overall fourth grade rank is 9th per ExcelinEd and 7th per Chad Aldeman, depending on ranking method. The August vs September-born phonics gap is 14 points in DfE data and 11 points in The Conversation; we cite DfE. The RAND survey was read through Education Week because the report page was not reachable, and the Education Endowment Foundation’s phonics toolkit and NCTQ teacher-prep data were blocked, so neither is cited. The National Reading Panel (2000) and WWC guide (2016, revised 2019) are older baselines (most recent available data). Eighth grade national achievement-level percentages other than below Basic were not available in readable form. The next NAEP reading release will be the first national test of the post-2023 law wave, and the US Senate has yet to act on H.R. 7890.
Last updated: October 3, 2026. We update this roundup quarterly, and the next refresh is expected when NCES releases the next NAEP reading results and the Department for Education publishes 2026 phonics screening check attainment.