Salesforce reported that AI and autonomous agents influenced 20 percent of all global retail sales during the 2025 holiday season, steering 262 billion dollars of the 1.29 trillion dollars shoppers spent online (Salesforce, 2025 Holiday Shopping Data). Traffic to US retail sites from generative AI sources jumped 693.4 percent year over year over the same window (Adobe Analytics, 2025 Holiday Recap). Nearly half of consumers - 45 percent - now turn to AI somewhere in their buying journey (IBM Institute for Business Value and NRF, 2026). And the market underneath it is compounding at more than 23 percent a year (Grand View Research, 2025). This analysis consolidates data from NRF, McKinsey, Salesforce, Adobe, Deloitte, Gartner, Shopify, and 6 other primary sources to show where AI in retail actually stands in 2026 - and where the numbers disagree.
TL;DR
- AI and agents influenced 20 percent of global retail sales in the 2025 holidays, worth 262 billion dollars (Salesforce, 2025 Holiday Shopping Data).
- Retail traffic from generative AI sources rose 693.4 percent year over year in the 2025 holiday season (Adobe Analytics, 2025 Holiday Recap).
- 45 percent of consumers now use AI during their buying journeys, across a survey of 18,000+ shoppers in 23 countries (IBM Institute for Business Value and NRF, 2026).
- The global AI in retail market was 11.61 billion dollars in 2024 and is forecast to reach 40.74 billion by 2030 at a 23.0 percent CAGR (Grand View Research, 2025).
- 75 percent of retail and CPG executives call AI a top strategic priority, but only 16.5 percent can quantify a return (Deloitte, State of AI Adoption in Retail and CPG 2026).
- 86 percent of retailers already have AI governance policies in place (NRF, Center for Digital Risk and Innovation 2025).
- AI-referred shoppers convert nearly 50 percent higher than organic search on product pages, with 14 percent higher order values (Shopify, Q1 2026).
- Gartner predicts 20 percent of digital commerce transactions will run through AI platforms or agents by 2030 (Gartner, 2026).
- Generative AI could generate 240 to 390 billion dollars of value for retailers, lifting margins 1.2 to 1.9 points (McKinsey, LLM to ROI 2024).
- 91 percent of supply chain professionals plan to use AI for demand forecasting within two years (ABI Research, 2025 Supply Chain Survey).
1. Market Size, Value, and Investment
The headline market-size numbers disagree by design - each firm draws a different boundary around “AI in retail.” What they agree on is direction: double-digit compounding growth and rising budgets. McKinsey estimates generative AI alone could generate 240 to 390 billion dollars of annual value for retailers, equivalent to a margin lift of 1.2 to 1.9 percentage points - and that is before counting the older, broader retail-and-CPG figure of 400 to 660 billion dollars. Where a research firm lands depends heavily on whether it counts software only or full deployments.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Global AI in retail market (2024) | $11.61 billion | Grand View Research, 2025 |
| Global AI in retail market forecast (2030) | $40.74 billion, 23.0% CAGR | Grand View Research, 2025 |
| AI in retail/FMCG market (2025 to 2026) | $15.4B to $20B, 29.9% CAGR | The Business Research Company, 2026 |
| Gen AI value potential for retailers | $240B to $390B (margin +1.2-1.9 pts) | McKinsey, LLM to ROI 2024 |
| Gen AI value for retail and CPG (2023, older) | $400B to $660B annually | McKinsey, Economic Potential of Gen AI 2023 |
| US retail media ad spend (2025 to 2026) | $60.32B to $71.09B, +17.8% | eMarketer, Dec 2025 |
| Retail/CPG execs planning to raise AI investment within 12 months | 82% | Deloitte, State of AI Adoption 2026 |
Note: Grand View’s 23.0 percent CAGR is the conservative end; syndicated firms citing 30 percent-plus growth generally fold in adjacent supply-chain and CPG spend. For the broader online-sales backdrop, see our e-commerce statistics for 2026.
2. Enterprise Adoption and Governance
Retail put governance ahead of results - an unusual sequencing for a hyped technology. 86 percent of retailers already have AI governance policies in place, yet only 16.5 percent of retail and CPG executives can quantify a return on their AI spend. The gap between board-level attention and P&L proof is the defining tension of 2026: CEOs are personally involved in AI oversight at 68 percent of surveyed retailers, but wide, non-IT adoption still tops out around a third of the organization.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Retailers with AI governance policies in place | 86% | NRF, Center for Digital Risk and Innovation 2025 |
| CEOs personally involved in AI oversight | 68% (boards: 55%) | NRF, 2025 |
| Retailers allocating 5% or less of tech budget to AI | 77% | NRF, 2025 |
| Execs calling AI a top strategic priority | 75% | Deloitte, State of AI Adoption 2026 |
| Execs who can quantify an AI return | 16.5% | Deloitte, 2026 |
| Enterprise-wide AI use-case deployment | 7% to 10% | Deloitte, 2026 |
| Retailers with positive ROI from customer personalization | 48% | NRF, 2025 |
Outlier: NRF’s survey covered 56 AI leaders at US retailers (summer 2025), so the 86 percent governance figure reflects large, AI-forward retailers - not the long tail of small merchants.
3. Personalization and Revenue Impact
Personalization is the use case with the clearest, most-replicated ROI - and the one retailers cite most when they can show a number. McKinsey finds AI-driven personalization lifts revenue 5 to 15 percent and improves marketing-spend efficiency 10 to 30 percent, while fast-growing companies pull 40 percent more revenue from personalization than slower-growing peers. In retail specifically, gen-AI decision systems are projected to add up to 5 percent of incremental sales.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue lift from AI-driven personalization | 5% to 15% | McKinsey, Personalized Marketing |
| Marketing-spend efficiency gain from personalization | 10% to 30% | McKinsey, Personalized Marketing |
| Extra revenue fast-growers derive from personalization | 40% more than peers | McKinsey, Personalized Marketing |
| Incremental sales from gen-AI decision systems | up to 5% (EBIT +0.2-0.4 pts) | McKinsey, LLM to ROI 2024 |
| Retail execs experimenting with or scaling gen AI | 90% | McKinsey, LLM to ROI 2024 |
| AI-influenced share of global holiday retail sales | 20% ($262B) | Salesforce, 2025 Holiday Shopping Data |
The personalization playbook overlaps heavily with marketing automation - see our AI in marketing statistics for 2026 for the spend and content side of the same shift.
4. AI-Driven Traffic and Product Discovery: Holiday 2025
The single fastest-moving number in retail is where shoppers arrive from. AI-referred traffic is small in absolute terms but exploding, and it converts better than the channels retailers have optimized for years. Adobe measured a 693.4 percent year-over-year jump in retail traffic from generative AI sources during the 2025 holidays, while Salesforce found AI-powered search traffic converted nine times more often than social media referrals. Shopify’s storefront data tells the same story from the merchant side.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Retail traffic from gen AI sources, 2025 holidays | +693.4% YoY | Adobe Analytics, 2025 |
| US online holiday spending, 2025 | $257.8 billion, +6.8% YoY | Adobe Analytics, 2025 |
| AI search vs social media referral conversion | 9x higher | Salesforce, 2025 Holiday Shopping Data |
| AI-referred vs organic conversion on product pages | ~50% higher | Shopify, Q1 2026 |
| AI-referred order value vs organic search | +14% AOV | Shopify, Q1 2026 |
| AI referral sessions / orders growth, Q1 2026 | 8x / nearly 13x YoY | Shopify, Q1 2026 |
| US retail traffic from AI sources, earlier baseline (older) | +1,200% Feb 2025 vs Jul 2024 | Adobe Analytics, Mar 2025 |
Context: growth rates are eye-popping because the base is tiny. Adobe’s own framing notes the user base “remains modest” even as the trajectory doubles roughly every two months.
5. Agentic Commerce and AI Shopping Assistants
Agentic commerce - AI that researches, compares, and checks out on the shopper’s behalf - is where the analyst forecasts get aggressive, and where the failure warnings get loud. Gartner predicts 20 percent of digital commerce transactions will flow through AI platforms or agents by 2030, and that agents will intermediate 15 trillion dollars in B2B purchases by 2028 - yet the same firm expects over 40 percent of agentic AI projects to be scrapped by the end of 2027. Consumers, meanwhile, are already delegating the research step.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Digital commerce transactions via AI platforms/agents by 2030 | 20% | Gartner, 2026 |
| Brands using agentic AI for one-to-one interactions by 2028 | 60% | Gartner, 2026 |
| Agentic AI projects expected to be canceled by end of 2027 | over 40% | Gartner, Jun 2025 |
| Consumers turning to AI during buying journeys | 45% | IBM Institute for Business Value and NRF, 2026 |
| Consumers using AI to research / read reviews / find deals | 41% / 33% / 31% | IBM and NRF, 2026 |
| Retail execs expecting agentic AI adoption within 12-24 months | 68% | Deloitte, 2026 Global Retail Outlook |
| Share of global e-commerce agents could influence by 2030 | up to 25% | Deloitte, 2026 Global Retail Outlook |
Because these assistants increasingly run through conversational and voice interfaces, the input layer matters too - our voice commerce statistics for 2026 cover that adjacent shift.
6. Customer Service, Conversational AI, and Returns
Service is where AI moved fastest from pilot to peak-load workhorse, absorbing holiday spikes that used to break human queues. Retailers saw a 66 percent jump in agentic AI-powered service conversations in December 2025 and a 142 percent surge in agent-handled actions like initiating returns and updating shipping details (Salesforce). With returns hitting 181 billion dollars - 14 percent of all purchases - the automation is landing exactly where the volume is.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Jump in agentic AI service conversations, Dec 2025 | +66% | Salesforce, 2025 Holiday Shopping Data |
| Surge in agent-handled service actions (returns, shipping) | +142% | Salesforce, 2025 Holiday Shopping Data |
| Holiday merchandise returned, 2025 | $181 billion (14% of purchases) | Salesforce, 2025 Holiday Shopping Data |
| AI-assistant shoppers reporting an improved experience | 81% | Adobe, AI Traffic Report 2026 |
| Chat-based tools’ share of referrals for some retailers | 15% to 20% | Deloitte, 2026 Global Retail Outlook |
For the wider service picture beyond retail, see our customer service AI statistics for 2026.
7. Supply Chain, Inventory, and Loss Prevention
Behind the storefront, AI is being adopted fastest for the least glamorous work: forecasting demand and stopping shrink. 91 percent of supply chain professionals plan to use AI or generative AI for demand forecasting within two years, and 94 percent for decision-making - the highest-ranked use case in ABI Research’s 490-respondent survey. McKinsey’s forecasting benchmarks explain the pull: sharp error reduction and lower carrying costs.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Supply chain pros planning AI/gen AI for demand forecasting (2 yrs) | 91% | ABI Research, 2025 Supply Chain Survey |
| Planning AI for decision-making (top use case) | 94% | ABI Research, 2025 |
| Supply chain leaders planning AI deployment in 2025 | 80% | ABI Research, 2025 |
| AI forecasting reduction in supply-chain errors | 20% to 50% | McKinsey, forecasting analyses |
| Retailers using AI for supply-chain visibility (now to next year) | 3 in 10 to 41% | Deloitte, 2026 Global Retail Outlook |
| Total US retail shrink, most recent comprehensive figure | $112.1 billion (2022) | NRF, National Retail Security Survey 2023 |
| Consumers who have used self-checkout | 96% | Capital One Shopping, 2026 |
Flag: the 112.1 billion dollar shrink figure covers 2022 and is NRF’s last full National Retail Security Survey before it changed methodology - treat it as the most recent comprehensive baseline, not a 2026 reading.
Summary: AI In Retail by the Numbers
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| AI-influenced share of 2025 global holiday retail sales | 20% ($262B) | Salesforce, 2025 Holiday Shopping Data |
| Total 2025 global online holiday sales | $1.29 trillion (US: $294B) | Salesforce, 2025 Holiday Shopping Data |
| Retail traffic from gen AI sources, 2025 holidays | +693.4% YoY | Adobe Analytics, 2025 |
| AI search vs social referral conversion | 9x higher | Salesforce, 2025 |
| AI-referred vs organic conversion on product pages | ~50% higher | Shopify, Q1 2026 |
| AI referral orders growth, Q1 2026 | nearly 13x YoY | Shopify, Q1 2026 |
| Global AI in retail market (2024 to 2030) | $11.61B to $40.74B, 23.0% CAGR | Grand View Research, 2025 |
| Gen AI value potential for retailers | $240B to $390B | McKinsey, LLM to ROI 2024 |
| US retail media ad spend (2026) | $71.09 billion, +17.8% | eMarketer, Dec 2025 |
| Consumers using AI during buying journeys | 45% | IBM and NRF, 2026 |
| Retailers with AI governance policies | 86% | NRF, 2025 |
| Execs calling AI a top strategic priority | 75% | Deloitte, 2026 |
| Execs who can quantify an AI return | 16.5% | Deloitte, 2026 |
| Revenue lift from AI personalization | 5% to 15% | McKinsey |
| Digital commerce via AI platforms/agents by 2030 | 20% | Gartner, 2026 |
| AI agents intermediating B2B purchases by 2028 | $15 trillion | Gartner, 2025 |
| Agentic AI projects expected to be canceled by 2027 | over 40% | Gartner, 2025 |
| Agentic AI service conversations, Dec 2025 | +66% | Salesforce, 2025 |
| Supply chain pros planning AI for demand forecasting | 91% | ABI Research, 2025 |
| Total US retail shrink (most recent comprehensive) | $112.1 billion (2022) | NRF, NRSS 2023 |
Methodology and Sources
Data was gathered in July 2026 by aggregating primary reports, surveys, company disclosures, and analyst forecasts published mainly in 2025 and 2026; figures were traced to the originating organization and cross-referenced across two or more sources where market sizing diverged.
Sources cited:
- Salesforce, 2025 Holiday Shopping Data / Shopping Index (2026)
- Adobe Analytics, 2025 Holiday Shopping Recap (2026) and AI Traffic Report / March 2025 baseline
- IBM Institute for Business Value and NRF, AI Shapes Consumer Decisions study (Jan 2026; 18,000+ consumers, 23 countries, 200 execs, Q3 2025)
- NRF, Center for Digital Risk and Innovation, Retail AI Trends (2025; 56 AI leaders at US retailers) and National Retail Security Survey 2023
- Deloitte, State of AI Adoption in Retail and CPG (2026; 200 execs) and 2026 Global Retail Industry Outlook (330 execs)
- McKinsey, LLM to ROI: How to Scale Gen AI in Retail (2024; 52 execs), The Economic Potential of Generative AI (2023), and Unlocking the Next Frontier of Personalized Marketing
- Gartner, Agentic AI predictions (Jan 2026) and 40% project cancellation forecast (Jun 2025)
- Shopify, AI Search Insights (Q1 2026)
- Grand View Research, AI in Retail Market Report (2025)
- The Business Research Company, AI in FMCG and Retail Global Market Report (2026)
- eMarketer, US Retail Media Ad Spending Forecast H1 2026 (Dec 2025)
- ABI Research, 2025 Supply Chain Survey (490 professionals)
- Capital One Shopping, retail and self-checkout research (2026)
Data watch: Salesforce and Adobe publish fresh holiday-season recaps every January, so 2026 holiday figures will supersede these in early 2027. NRF’s Retail AI Trends and Deloitte’s Global Retail Outlook run annually; Gartner refreshes its agentic-commerce predictions through the year; eMarketer updates retail media forecasts each half. NRF has also signaled a revised shrink methodology to replace the 2022 National Retail Security Survey baseline.
Last updated: July 11, 2026. We review and update this page quarterly as new data is published.