Global retail e-commerce will pass $6.9 trillion in 2026, and for the first time more than one in five retail dollars worldwide will be spent online. The US Census Bureau put e-commerce at 16.6% of total US retail sales in Q4 2025. Shopify cleared $378 billion in merchant GMV for full-year 2025, Amazon and its sellers moved roughly $830 billion in goods, and TikTok Shop nearly doubled its global GMV. The growth story of 2026 is no longer about whether shoppers buy online — it is about which channel, which device, and which region captures the spend.
The picture is uneven. US growth slowed through 2025 before a forecast 2026 rebound, cart abandonment has held near 70% for two decades, and the gap between mobile traffic and mobile conversion remains wide. We pulled 52+ data points from eMarketer, the US Census Bureau, Adobe Analytics, UNCTAD, Marketplace Pulse, and the earnings filings of Amazon, Alibaba, and Shopify — cross-referencing market-size figures across two or more firms wherever estimates diverged.
Key Takeaways
- Global retail e-commerce will reach roughly $6.9 trillion in 2026, up about 7-8% year over year (eMarketer, Worldwide Ecommerce Forecast 2026).
- E-commerce will account for 21-22% of all retail sales worldwide in 2026, the highest share on record (eMarketer, 2026).
- US e-commerce hit 16.6% of total retail in Q4 2025, with full-year 2025 online sales of $1.23 trillion (US Census Bureau, Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales Q4 2025).
- Asia-Pacific holds more than 60% of worldwide e-commerce sales, led by China nearing 50% online retail penetration (eMarketer, Asia-Pacific Ecommerce Forecast 2026).
- Mobile commerce accounts for roughly 60% of global e-commerce sales in 2026, projected to reach 63% by 2028 (Statista, Mobile Commerce Worldwide 2026).
- Social commerce will surpass $100 billion in US sales in 2026, an 18% year-over-year jump (eMarketer, 2026).
- Amazon and its sellers sold about $830 billion in goods in 2025, with third-party sellers driving 69% of marketplace GMV (Marketplace Pulse, 2026).
- Shopify processed $378.4 billion in GMV in full-year 2025, up 29.5% year over year (Shopify Q4 2025 financial results, 2026).
- The average cart abandonment rate sits at 70.2% across 50 pooled studies (Baymard Institute, Cart Abandonment Rate 2026).
- US online holiday spending hit a record $257.8 billion between Nov 1 and Dec 31, 2025 (Adobe Analytics, 2025 Holiday Shopping Report).
- Around 2.86 billion people shop online in 2026, about one third of the global population (Statista, E-commerce Worldwide 2026).
- Global retail e-commerce is forecast to approach $8 trillion by 2027-2028 at high-single-digit annual growth (Forrester, Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast).
1. Market Size and Growth
Global e-commerce growth has settled into a steadier, high-single-digit rhythm after the pandemic-era surge. Global retail e-commerce sales will reach roughly $6.9 trillion in 2026, up about 7-8% from 2025 (eMarketer, Worldwide Ecommerce Forecast 2026). That is a far cry from the 25%+ spikes of 2020-2021, but on a base this large, a single point of growth now represents close to $70 billion in new spend.
The deceleration is real but not a decline. The most striking signal of 2026 is structural: e-commerce will account for 21-22% of all retail sales worldwide, the highest share ever recorded. Online retail is no longer a fast-growing niche — it is a fixed and rising fraction of how the world buys.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Global retail e-commerce sales (2026) | ~$6.9T | eMarketer, 2026 |
| Global e-commerce YoY growth (2026) | ~7-8% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| E-commerce share of global retail (2026) | 21-22% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| Global online shoppers (2026) | ~2.86B | Statista, 2026 |
| Online shoppers as share of world population | ~33% | Statista, 2026 |
| Projected global e-commerce (2027) | ~$7.6T | Forrester, 2026 |
| Projected global e-commerce (2028) | ~$8.1T | Forrester, 2026 |
Source: eMarketer Worldwide Ecommerce Forecast 2026, Forrester Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast. For how online demand connects to ad budgets, see our digital advertising statistics 2026.
2. E-commerce Share of Retail
Penetration is the metric that separates hype from structural change, and the US Census Bureau provides the cleanest read. US retail e-commerce reached 16.6% of total retail sales in Q4 2025, with seasonally adjusted online sales of $316.1 billion (US Census Bureau, Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales Q4 2025). For the full year, US e-commerce totaled $1.23 trillion — 16.4% of all retail and up 5.4% over 2024.
That 5.4% full-year growth understates the channel. Online sales grew at exactly twice the pace of total retail, which expanded 2.7%. Every quarter, e-commerce takes a slightly larger slice, and the trend has not reversed in any non-recessionary period on record.
Penetration varies sharply by market. China leads the world with online retail nearing 50% of total retail, while the global average sits closer to 21-22% (eMarketer, 2026). The headroom in lower-penetration markets — much of Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa — is where forecasters expect the next decade of outsized growth.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US e-commerce share of retail (Q4 2025) | 16.6% | US Census Bureau, 2025 |
| US e-commerce share of retail (full-year 2025) | 16.4% | US Census Bureau, 2025 |
| US e-commerce sales (full-year 2025) | $1.23T | US Census Bureau, 2025 |
| US e-commerce sales (Q4 2025, seasonally adjusted) | $316.1B | US Census Bureau, 2025 |
| US e-commerce YoY growth (Q4 2025) | 5.3% | US Census Bureau, 2025 |
| China online retail penetration (2026) | ~50% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| Global e-commerce share of retail (2026) | 21-22% | eMarketer, 2026 |
Source: US Census Bureau Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales.
3. By Region
Geography decides the e-commerce map more than any other factor. Asia-Pacific holds more than 60% of worldwide e-commerce sales in 2026, a lead no other region is positioned to challenge this decade (eMarketer, Asia-Pacific Ecommerce Forecast 2026). China alone is larger than the next several national markets combined, with online retail penetration approaching 50% and roughly 915 million digital buyers.
Growth, though, is fastest at the edges. Within Asia-Pacific, 2026 retail e-commerce growth ranges from 21.5% in the Philippines down to 4.7% in mature Japan. Southeast Asia is the region’s hottest sub-market, on a path toward $230 billion in GMV.
Latin America has reclaimed its position as the fastest-growing regional market, expanding 12.2% in 2025, with Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina making up 84.5% of regional sales (eMarketer, Latin America Ecommerce Market Shares 2026). North America remains a high-value but slower-growth market, with US sales projected to rebound in 2026 after a soft 2025.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Asia-Pacific share of global e-commerce (2026) | >60% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| China digital buyers | ~915M | Statista, 2026 |
| Philippines e-commerce growth (2026) | 21.5% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| Japan e-commerce growth (2026) | 4.7% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| Latin America e-commerce growth (2025) | 12.2% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| Brazil + Mexico + Argentina share of LatAm sales | 84.5% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| Southeast Asia GMV target | ~$230B | eMarketer, 2026 |
Source: eMarketer Asia-Pacific Ecommerce Forecast 2026, eMarketer Latin America Ecommerce Market Shares 2026.
4. Mobile Commerce
The smartphone is now the default storefront. Mobile commerce accounts for roughly 60% of global e-commerce sales in 2026, up from 43% in 2018 and on track for 63% by 2028 (Statista, Mobile Commerce Worldwide 2026). The global m-commerce market is valued near $2.4 trillion this year, growing at about a 9.5% CAGR.
Traffic skews even more heavily mobile than sales do. Roughly 78% of all e-commerce site traffic comes from mobile devices, yet conversion has historically lagged — a gap that finally narrowed in 2026 as mobile conversion reached about 2.8%, matching desktop for the first time.
Adobe’s holiday data confirms the shift in real spending. A record 56.4% of US online holiday transactions in 2025 came from smartphones, up from 54.5% a year earlier (Adobe Analytics, 2025 Holiday Shopping Report). Asia-Pacific drives more than half of global mobile commerce revenue, with South Korea the most mobile-skewed market on earth at roughly 77% of e-commerce on phones.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Mobile share of global e-commerce sales (2026) | ~60% | Statista, 2026 |
| Mobile share of e-commerce (2018, for comparison) | 43% | Statista, 2026 |
| Projected mobile share of e-commerce (2028) | ~63% | Statista, 2026 |
| Global m-commerce market value (2026) | ~$2.4T | Statista, 2026 |
| Mobile share of e-commerce site traffic | ~78% | mobiloud, 2026 |
| Average mobile conversion rate (2026) | ~2.8% | mobiloud, 2026 |
| Smartphone share of US online holiday sales (2025) | 56.4% | Adobe Analytics, 2026 |
| South Korea mobile share of e-commerce | ~77% | Statista, 2026 |
Source: Statista Mobile Commerce Worldwide, Adobe 2025 Holiday Shopping Report. The same mobile-first behavior reshapes entertainment spend — see our mobile gaming statistics 2026.
5. Social Commerce
Shopping is migrating into the feed. Estimates for the global social commerce market in 2026 cluster around $2.1 trillion, with high-growth forecasts pointing toward $7-8 trillion by the early 2030s (Mordor Intelligence, Social Commerce Market 2026; Fortune Business Insights, Social Commerce Market 2026). Social commerce is expected to represent more than one fifth of all e-commerce transactions in 2026.
The US is a smaller but symbolically important market. US social commerce sales will surpass $100 billion for the first time in 2026, an 18% year-over-year jump (eMarketer, 2026). That milestone follows $87 billion in US social commerce sales in 2025.
TikTok Shop is the engine. Its global GMV nearly doubled to roughly $64 billion in 2025, with US sales reaching $15.8 billion — up 108% — and a forecast pointing toward $112 billion globally in 2026 (eMarketer, TikTok Shop Makes Up Nearly 20% of Social Commerce in 2025). TikTok Shop alone now commands about 18% of US social commerce, with that share projected to climb toward 24% by 2027.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Global social commerce market (2026, midpoint estimate) | ~$2.1T | Mordor Intelligence, 2026 |
| Social commerce share of all e-commerce (2026) | >20% | Mordor Intelligence, 2026 |
| US social commerce sales (2026, forecast) | >$100B | eMarketer, 2026 |
| US social commerce YoY growth (2026) | 18% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| US social commerce sales (2025) | ~$87B | eMarketer, 2026 |
| TikTok Shop global GMV (2025) | ~$64B | eMarketer, 2026 |
| TikTok Shop US sales (2025) | $15.8B | eMarketer, 2026 |
| TikTok Shop share of US social commerce (2025) | ~18% | eMarketer, 2026 |
Source: eMarketer TikTok Shop / Social Commerce, Mordor Intelligence Social Commerce Market. For the influencer side of this funnel, see our influencer marketing statistics 2026 and social media statistics 2026.
6. Platform Leaders: Amazon, Alibaba, and Shopify
Three platforms anchor global e-commerce, and their 2025 results show divergent strategies. Amazon and its sellers moved roughly $830 billion in goods in 2025, with total Amazon revenue at $716.9 billion (Marketplace Pulse, 2026). Third-party sellers drove 69% of marketplace GMV — about $575 billion — and accounted for 61% of paid units sold in Q4 2025.
That marketplace is concentrating fast. Fewer than 8,000 sellers — just 1.6% of the active base — now generate half of Amazon’s estimated $300 billion in US third-party GMV, down from 15,000 sellers hitting that threshold in 2023.
Alibaba posted consolidated fiscal-year 2025 revenue of about $137.3 billion (roughly RMB 996 billion), with Taobao and Tmall customer-management revenue up 12% in the March quarter (Alibaba Group, FY2025 Results). Shopify took a different path: a pure software-and-payments platform that processed $378.4 billion in merchant GMV in 2025, up 29.5%, on revenue of $11.56 billion — its first year with a quarter clearing $100 billion in GMV.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon total GMV (2025) | ~$830B | Marketplace Pulse, 2026 |
| Amazon total revenue (2025) | $716.9B | Marketplace Pulse, 2026 |
| Third-party share of Amazon GMV (2025) | 69% | Marketplace Pulse, 2026 |
| Third-party seller services revenue (2025) | $175.2B | Marketplace Pulse, 2026 |
| Third-party share of paid units (Q4 2025) | 61% | Marketplace Pulse, 2026 |
| Alibaba consolidated revenue (FY2025) | ~$137.3B | Alibaba Group, 2025 |
| Shopify GMV (full-year 2025) | $378.4B | Shopify, 2026 |
| Shopify revenue (full-year 2025) | $11.56B | Shopify, 2026 |
| Shopify GMV YoY growth (2025) | 29.5% | Shopify, 2026 |
Source: Marketplace Pulse Amazon GMV, Shopify Q4 2025 Financial Results, Alibaba FY2025 Results.
E-commerce by the Numbers (Summary)
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Global retail e-commerce sales (2026) | ~$6.9T | eMarketer, 2026 |
| E-commerce share of global retail (2026) | 21-22% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| Global online shoppers (2026) | ~2.86B | Statista, 2026 |
| Projected global e-commerce (2028) | ~$8.1T | Forrester, 2026 |
| US e-commerce share of retail (Q4 2025) | 16.6% | US Census Bureau, 2025 |
| US e-commerce sales (full-year 2025) | $1.23T | US Census Bureau, 2025 |
| US e-commerce YoY growth (Q4 2025) | 5.3% | US Census Bureau, 2025 |
| Asia-Pacific share of global e-commerce | >60% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| China online retail penetration (2026) | ~50% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| Latin America e-commerce growth (2025) | 12.2% | eMarketer, 2026 |
| Mobile share of global e-commerce (2026) | ~60% | Statista, 2026 |
| Global m-commerce market value (2026) | ~$2.4T | Statista, 2026 |
| Smartphone share of US holiday sales (2025) | 56.4% | Adobe Analytics, 2026 |
| Global social commerce market (2026) | ~$2.1T | Mordor Intelligence, 2026 |
| US social commerce sales (2026) | >$100B | eMarketer, 2026 |
| TikTok Shop global GMV (2025) | ~$64B | eMarketer, 2026 |
| Amazon total GMV (2025) | ~$830B | Marketplace Pulse, 2026 |
| Shopify GMV (full-year 2025) | $378.4B | Shopify, 2026 |
| Alibaba consolidated revenue (FY2025) | ~$137.3B | Alibaba Group, 2025 |
| Average cart abandonment rate (2026) | 70.2% | Baymard Institute, 2026 |
| US online holiday spend (2025) | $257.8B | Adobe Analytics, 2026 |
| US Cyber Monday online spend (2025) | $14.25B | Adobe Analytics, 2025 |
Methodology and Sources
This roundup compiles publicly reported e-commerce statistics published between 2025 and 2026. Figures are attributed inline to their originating organization. Where market-size estimates diverged across firms, we cross-referenced two or more sources and labeled values as approximate. Government statistics (US Census Bureau) are reported exactly as published; private-firm forecasts and third-party survey data are inherently estimates and should be treated as directional.
Primary sources:
- US Census Bureau — Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, Q4 2025 — https://www.census.gov/retail/ecommerce.html
- eMarketer — Worldwide, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America Ecommerce Forecasts 2026 — https://www.emarketer.com/topics/industry/ecommerce-sales
- eMarketer — TikTok Shop / Social Commerce 2025-2026 — https://www.emarketer.com/press-releases/tiktok-shop-makes-up-nearly-20-of-social-commerce-in-2025/
- Adobe Analytics — 2025 Holiday Shopping Report and Digital Economy Index — https://news.adobe.com/news/2026/01/adobe-holiday-shopping-season
- Forrester — Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast — https://www.forrester.com/blogs/global-retail-e-commerce-sales-will-reach-6-8-trillion-by-2028/
- Statista — E-commerce Worldwide and Mobile Commerce Worldwide 2026 — https://www.statista.com/topics/871/online-shopping/
- Marketplace Pulse — Amazon GMV 2025 — https://www.marketplacepulse.com/articles/amazon-gmv-surpassed-800-billion-in-2025
- Shopify — Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Financial Results — https://www.shopify.com/news/shopify-q4-2025-financial-results
- Alibaba Group — March Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Results — https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250514856295/en/Alibaba-Group-Announces-March-Quarter-2025-and-Fiscal-Year-2025-Results
- Baymard Institute — Cart Abandonment Rate 2026 — https://baymard.com/lists/cart-abandonment-rate
- Mordor Intelligence — Social Commerce Market 2026 — https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/social-commerce-market
- UNCTAD — Measuring E-commerce and the Digital Economy — https://unctad.org/topic/ecommerce-and-digital-economy/measuring-ecommerce-digital-economy
Last updated: May 2026. We refresh this page quarterly as the US Census Bureau releases new Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales data and as eMarketer, Adobe, and platform earnings update their figures.
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