Juniper Research expects global retail roaming revenue to fall from $15.6 billion in 2026 to $11.3 billion in 2031, a loss of more than $4 billion in five years. That is a reversal: in January 2025 the same firm forecast growth from 13.4 billion in 2025 to 20.9 billion in 2029. The difference is the travel eSIM, which Juniper says grew 85% to $1.8 billion in 2025, and regulators who keep squeezing what operators can bill. Underneath the retail fight, the wholesale market is still expanding: Kaleido Intelligence forecasts more than $70 billion in combined roaming revenue in 2030. For the device side of this shift, see our eSIM consumer adoption statistics. We aggregated data from Juniper Research, Kaleido Intelligence, FDM CCS Insight, the European Commission, Eurobarometer, IATA, GSMA Intelligence, Verizon, AT&T, Vodafone UK, Airalo and Holafly, listed in the methodology.
TL;DR
- Global retail roaming revenue: $15.6 billion in 2026, falling to $11.3 billion in 2031 (Juniper Research, Retail Roaming 2026-2031).
- Retail roaming market forecast to decline 27% between 2026 and 2030 (Juniper Research, October 2026).
- Travel eSIM revenue reached $1.8 billion in 2025, up 85% from $989 million in 2024 (Juniper Research, October 2025).
- Wholesale and retail roaming revenue from consumer, travel eSIM and IoT connections to exceed $70 billion in 2030, up 55% from 2025 (Kaleido Intelligence, January 2026).
- Roaming data traffic forecast to grow 140% to more than 20,300 petabytes in 2030 (Kaleido Intelligence, January 2026).
- Travel eSIM penetration among travellers: 12% in 2025, 31% by 2030 (Kaleido Intelligence).
- Roaming wholesale voice and SMS revenue expected to fall more than 70% from 2026 to 2030 (Kaleido Intelligence, June 2026).
- EU roaming data consumption is up 48-fold since Roam-Like-at-Home began in 2017 (European Commission, Roaming Market Review 2025).
- EU roaming subscribers used 1,704 MB of data per month in Q3 2024 (European Commission, SWD(2025) 164).
- EU wholesale data cap: 2 euros per GB in 2022, 1.30 euros in 2025, 1 euro from 2027 (European Commission).
- Airalo reached 30 million customers in June 2026, up from 20 million about a year earlier (Airalo, June 2026).
- Verizon TravelPass and AT&T International Day Pass both cost $12 per day (Verizon and AT&T plan pages, 2026).
1. Retail Roaming Revenue: The Forecast That Flipped
The most telling number in this roundup is not a single figure but the change between two forecasts from the same analyst. In January 2025, Juniper Research’s Global Mobile Roaming Market 2025-2029 projected total retail roaming revenue rising from 13.4 billion in 2025 to 20.9 billion in 2029, a 56% gain. Twenty-one months later, its Retail Roaming 2026-2031 study points the other way: retail roaming revenue drops from $15.6 billion in 2026 to $11.3 billion in 2031 (Juniper Research press release, October 2026).
Juniper names two causes. Regulators keep capping what operators can charge travellers, and travel eSIMs offer ‘lower costs and improved user experiences’ that pull travellers away from their home SIM. The recommended response is telling too: VP of Research Nick Maynard says operators should market to travellers during trip planning, including partnerships with online travel agencies. In other words, roaming has become a product that has to be sold, not a fee that is simply collected.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Global retail roaming revenue, 2026 | $15.6 billion | Juniper Research, Retail Roaming 2026-2031 (October 2026) |
| Global retail roaming revenue, 2031 | $11.3 billion (press release); 11.5 billion on report page | Juniper Research, October 2026 |
| Revenue lost 2026 to 2031 | About $4.3 billion | Juniper Research, October 2026 |
| Retail roaming market decline, 2026 to 2030 | 27% | Juniper Research, Retail Roaming 2026-2031 |
| Total retail roaming revenue, 2025 (earlier forecast) | 13.4 billion | Juniper Research, Global Mobile Roaming Market 2025-2029 (January 2025) |
| Total retail roaming revenue, 2029 (earlier forecast) | 20.9 billion (+56% over 2025) | Juniper Research, January 2025 |
| Coverage of the 2025-2029 forecast | 60 countries, 8 regions, 48,300+ data points | Juniper Research, January 2025 |
Context note: the January 2025 page shows the 13.4 and 20.9 figures without a currency symbol; Juniper’s October 2026 release reports in US dollars. The two forecasts use different scopes (the 2025 study also models wholesale, IoT and cruise roaming), so the reversal reflects both a methodology change and a weaker outlook.
2. The Wider Roaming Market: Wholesale and IoT Keep Growing
Retail decline does not mean roaming is a dying business. Kaleido Intelligence, which tracks both retail and wholesale flows, forecasts that combined wholesale and retail roaming revenue from consumer, travel eSIM and IoT connections will exceed $70 billion in 2030, a 55% increase on 2025 (Kaleido Intelligence, January 2026). The money is moving from the traveller’s bill to the operator-to-operator settlement layer, where a travel eSIM provider buying network access abroad still pays a wholesale rate.
Traffic is the engine. Kaleido expects consumer and IoT roaming data usage to rise 140% to more than 20,300 petabytes in 2030, while IoT roaming connections grow 18% a year, against 11% for cellular IoT overall. Voice and SMS, the historical cash cows, are going the other way: Kaleido’s 2026 wholesale study expects wholesale voice and SMS revenue to fall by more than 70% between 2026 and 2030.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Wholesale and retail roaming revenue (consumer, travel eSIM, IoT), 2030 | More than $70 billion (+55% vs 2025) | Kaleido Intelligence, January 2026 |
| Consumer and IoT roaming data usage, 2030 | More than 20,300 PB (+140%) | Kaleido Intelligence, January 2026 |
| Travel eSIM wholesale revenue, 2030 | Approaching $10 billion a year | Kaleido Intelligence, January 2026 |
| IoT roaming connections growth, 2025 to 2030 | 18% a year (vs 11% for cellular IoT) | Kaleido Intelligence, January 2026 |
| Wholesale roaming market, 2030 | More than $35 billion | Kaleido Intelligence, Roaming Market Transition 2026 white paper |
| Wholesale voice and SMS revenue, 2026 to 2030 | Decline of more than 70% | Kaleido Intelligence, June 2026 |
| Cellular IoT connections, end of 2025 | 4.1 billion (+1 billion in 2 years) | Kaleido Intelligence, Retail Roaming Roadmap 2026 |
Context note: Kaleido’s $70 billion figure combines wholesale and retail revenue, so it is not comparable with Juniper’s retail-only $15.6 billion. Wholesale revenue is partly double counted against retail, because an operator’s wholesale bill is funded by its own retail roaming income.
3. Travel eSIMs: The Disruptor in Numbers
Every forecaster agrees on the direction; nobody agrees on the size. Juniper Research estimates travel eSIM package revenue reached $1.8 billion in 2025, up 85% from $989 million in 2024 (Juniper Research, October 2025), with adoption rising nearly 50% a year in markets such as Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Australia, Brazil and India and revenue forecast to pass $8.7 billion by 2030 (TelcoMagazine). Kaleido counts retail spend more broadly, at $3.8 billion in 2025 rising to nearly $12 billion by 2030, and said at MWC 2026 that spend should approach $5 billion by the end of 2026.
Volume tells the same story. FDM CCS Insight forecasts travel eSIM provisions quadrupling from about 70 million in 2024 to 280 million in 2030, and its analysts expect 134 million in use in 2026, up about 32% from 101.8 million in 2025 (Travelers Today, August 2026). The leading specialists are now large companies: Airalo passed 30 million customers in June 2026, and Holafly reported more than $500 million in cumulative revenue since 2020. The phones are ready: GSMA Intelligence expects eSIM to account for 76% of smartphone connections by 2030, a trend covered in our smartphone market statistics.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Travel eSIM revenue, 2025 | $1.8 billion (+85% from $989 million in 2024) | Juniper Research, October 2025 |
| Travel eSIM revenue, 2030 | More than $8.7 billion | Juniper Research via TelcoMagazine, October 2025 |
| Travel eSIM retail spend | $3.8 billion (2025) to nearly $12 billion (2030) | Kaleido Intelligence, Travel eSIM Bundle 2025-2026 |
| Travel eSIM penetration of travellers | 12% (2025) to 31% (2030) | Kaleido Intelligence, January 2026 |
| Travel eSIMs in use | 101.8 million (2025), about 134 million (2026) | FDM CCS Insight via Travelers Today, August 2026 |
| Travel eSIM provisions | About 70 million (2024) to 280 million (2030); value above $4.4 billion in 2030 | FDM CCS Insight, September 2025 |
| Airalo customers | 30 million (June 2026), from 20 million about a year earlier | Airalo, June 2026 |
| Holafly | More than $500 million cumulative revenue since 2020; about $200 million in 2024; 15 million+ eSIMs sold | Holafly, September 2025 |
Context note: Sensor Tower data cited by Travelers Today shows the five most popular travel eSIM apps reached 36.4 million downloads in 2025 and more than 26 million in 2026 to date, and STL Partners values the market at 649 million pounds in 2025. The spread between $1.8 billion (Juniper), $3.8 billion (Kaleido) and 649 million pounds (STL) comes from definitions: package revenue, retail spend including operator travel eSIMs, or specialist providers only.
4. Europe’s Roam-Like-at-Home: The 48x Experiment
The EU ran the largest natural experiment in roaming pricing, and the result is unambiguous. When retail surcharges disappeared on 15 June 2017, roaming data use jumped five-fold in the first year and roaming calls 2.5-fold. By 2024, the Commission’s Roaming Market Review counted a 48-fold increase in roaming data consumption since Roam-Like-at-Home began, measured in the busy third quarter. The accompanying staff working document puts usage at 1,704 MB per month per roaming subscriber in Q3 2024, up 267% on Q3 2019.
Demand rose; operator pain was contained. Only 4.65% of roaming customers went over fair use limits in Q3 2024, and the Commission reports a clear decline in operators needing derogations to recover costs (European Commission). The trade-off is wholesale price regulation: under the 2022 regulation, which runs to 30 June 2032, the cap on what one operator pays another for data falls from 2 euros per GB in July 2022 to 1.30 euros in 2025 and 1 euro from 2027 (Your Europe). The zone keeps expanding: Ukraine and Moldova joined on 1 January 2026, and on 25 February 2026 the Commission proposed talks with six Western Balkan countries.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Roaming data growth since RLAH (Q3) | 48-fold | European Commission, Roaming Market Review, June 2025 |
| First-year effect (2017 vs 2016) | Data about 5x, roaming calls about 2.5x | European Commission, Roaming Market Review, June 2025 |
| Data per roaming subscriber, Q3 2024 | 1,704 MB per month (+267% vs Q3 2019) | European Commission, SWD(2025) 164 |
| Roamers exceeding fair use limits, Q3 2024 | 4.65% | European Commission, June 2025 |
| Operators with at least one fair use mechanism, 2024 | About 80% (71% on open data bundles) | European Commission, June 2025 |
| Wholesale data cap | 2 euros/GB (July 2022), 1.30 euros/GB (2025), 1 euro/GB (2027) | European Commission; Your Europe |
| Wholesale voice / SMS caps | 0.019 euros per minute / 0.003 euros per SMS | Your Europe, 2025 |
| New RLAH members | Ukraine and Moldova, 1 January 2026 | European Commission, January 2026 |
Context note: retail roaming voice traffic in the EU has been declining slightly but steadily since Q3 2019, which the Commission attributes to over-the-top calling apps. BEREC’s 32nd International Roaming Benchmark report (March 2026) covers October 2024 to September 2025, but its figures sit in spreadsheet annexes we could not parse, so EU traffic data here stops at Q3 2024.
5. Who Roams: Travellers, Silent Roamers and Travel Demand
Roaming revenue is a function of how many people cross borders and how many of them turn their phone on when they do. Eurobarometer data in the Commission review shows roamers made up about 43% of EU mobile users (Flash Eurobarometer 521, 2023), and 31% of respondents had travelled in the EU/EEA in the past two years (Special Eurobarometer 560, February 2025). Around 80% of EU travellers say they benefit from the roaming rules.
Outside Europe the problem is the ‘silent roamer’, the traveller who keeps data off and lives on Wi-Fi. Kaleido sizes that gap at $1.5 billion in incremental revenue and found 27% of Chinese and 22% of Indian travellers had moved to digital-first roaming alternatives (Kaleido Intelligence, Retail Roaming Roadmap 2026). Travel volume is not a guaranteed tailwind either: IATA reported international air passenger demand down 0.9% year over year in August 2026, with Middle East carriers down 14.2% after the Iran war that began in February (IATA, September 2026). Our business travel statistics track the corporate side of that demand.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Roamers as a share of EU mobile users | About 43% | Flash Eurobarometer 521 (2023), via European Commission SWD(2025) 164 |
| EU respondents who travelled in the EU/EEA in the last two years | 31% | Special Eurobarometer 560, February 2025 |
| EU travellers who say they benefit from roaming rules | About 80% | Eurobarometer, via European Commission, June 2025 |
| Silent roamer revenue opportunity | $1.5 billion | Kaleido Intelligence, 2026 |
| Travellers moved to digital-first roaming: China / India | 27% / 22% | Kaleido Intelligence, 2026 |
| International air passenger demand, August 2026 | -0.9% YoY (+1.3% excluding Middle East carriers) | IATA, September 2026 |
| Regional demand, August 2026 | Middle East -14.2%, Europe +2.1%, Latin America +6.7%, Africa +6.7% | IATA, September 2026 |
| International load factor, August 2026 | 85.0% (-0.8 points) | IATA, September 2026 |
Context note: the 43% Eurobarometer figure dates from 2023 (most recent available data for that question). We could not access UN Tourism’s World Tourism Barometer directly (the site blocked automated access), so international arrivals are not included.
6. Operator Strategy: Fight, Partner or Host
Operators are no longer arguing about whether travel eSIMs matter, only about whether to compete with them or sell them capacity. Kaleido’s 2026 survey of 68 Tier 1 and Tier 2+ operators found 47% plan wholesale rate plans tailored to travel eSIM and multi-IMSI platforms, and another 47% want to act as a roaming sponsor or host network for travel eSIM providers, while only 13% want to restrict travel eSIM traffic in bilateral agreements (The Fast Mode, July 2026). A quarter already see more inbound traffic or wholesale revenue through such partnerships.
Some operators are launching their own. FDM CCS Insight notes Vodafone and Orange have travel eSIM offers, and Telefonica reported 100,000 users within six months of its mid-2025 launch and 660,000 combined days of use by mid-January 2026. Juniper’s analyst Molly Gatford put it plainly: in 2026 operators need their own travel eSIM services ‘to compete and retain as much revenue as possible from mobile roaming.’ The next battleground is 5G: 20% of operators in Kaleido’s survey had no plan or strategy for 5G Standalone roaming as of Q1 2026, a gap that matters for anyone who relies on low-latency apps abroad, a theme in our 5G adoption statistics.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Operators planning wholesale rate plans for travel eSIM / multi-IMSI | 47% | Kaleido Intelligence wholesale survey (68 MNOs), 2026 |
| Operators aiming to host travel eSIM providers | 47% | Kaleido Intelligence, 2026 |
| Operators keeping current wholesale policies / adding restrictions | 21% / 13% | Kaleido Intelligence, 2026 |
| Operators seeing more inbound traffic or revenue via eSIM partners | 25% | Kaleido Intelligence, 2026 |
| Operators expecting lower wholesale data prices in 3 to 5 years | 38% | Kaleido Intelligence, 2026 |
| Operators expecting lower inbound data roaming volumes | 4% | Kaleido Intelligence, 2026 |
| Operators with no 5G SA roaming plan, Q1 2026 | 20% | Kaleido Intelligence, 2026 |
| Telefonica travel eSIM | 100,000 users in 6 months; 660,000 days used by mid-January 2026 | Telefonica via FDM CCS Insight, February 2026 |
7. What Travellers Pay: Day Passes Versus eSIM Bundles
Retail pricing explains why the travel eSIM gained ground. In the US, Verizon TravelPass costs $12 per day in more than 210 countries and destinations and $6 per day in Canada and Mexico (Verizon), and AT&T’s International Day Pass is also $12 a day, plus $6 for each additional line used the same day. A two-week trip for one person on a day pass is $168 (14 x $12). Kaleido’s traveller research puts average travel eSIM spend at about $28 per trip against $42 for a roaming trip, and Travelers Today found Airalo’s most popular Europe plan at $4.50 for 1GB over seven days.
UK operators show the post-Brexit model. Vodafone UK includes a short list of destinations (Zone A, including the Republic of Ireland, Isle of Man, Iceland and Norway) in all pay monthly plans, while European roaming in Zone B is sold through an 8-day pass at 16 pounds or a 15-day pass at 21 pounds (Vodafone UK). For heavy users, operator passes still win on convenience; for light users, the per-gigabyte eSIM bundle is cheaper, which is exactly the segment carriers are losing.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Verizon TravelPass | $12/day (210+ destinations), $6/day Canada and Mexico | Verizon international plans page, 2026 |
| Verizon monthly international plan | $100 (20 GB high-speed data, 250 minutes) | Verizon, 2026 |
| AT&T International Day Pass | $12/day, +$6 per additional line, 210+ destinations | AT&T, 2026 |
| AT&T cruise day pass | $20/day with 500MB of data (400+ ships) | AT&T, 2026 |
| Vodafone UK Europe passes | 16 pounds (8 days) / 21 pounds (15 days) | Vodafone UK roaming page, 2026 |
| Average spend per trip: travel eSIM vs roaming | About $28 vs $42 | Kaleido Intelligence traveller research, 2025-2026 |
| Airalo Unlimited plans growth since Q3 2025 launch | 193% (150 destinations) | Airalo, June 2026 |
Summary: International Mobile Roaming Revenue by the Numbers
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Global retail roaming revenue, 2026 | $15.6 billion | Juniper Research, October 2026 |
| Global retail roaming revenue, 2031 | $11.3 billion | Juniper Research, October 2026 |
| Retail roaming decline, 2026 to 2030 | 27% | Juniper Research |
| Earlier forecast, 2025 to 2029 | 13.4 billion to 20.9 billion | Juniper Research, January 2025 |
| Total roaming revenue (wholesale + retail), 2030 | More than $70 billion (+55%) | Kaleido Intelligence, January 2026 |
| Roaming data usage, 2030 | 20,300+ PB (+140%) | Kaleido Intelligence |
| Wholesale voice and SMS revenue, 2026 to 2030 | More than 70% decline | Kaleido Intelligence |
| Travel eSIM revenue, 2025 | $1.8 billion (+85%) | Juniper Research |
| Travel eSIM spend, 2026 | Approaching $5 billion | Kaleido Intelligence, MWC 2026 |
| Travel eSIM penetration | 12% (2025) to 31% (2030) | Kaleido Intelligence |
| Travel eSIMs in use, 2026 | About 134 million | FDM CCS Insight |
| Airalo customers | 30 million (June 2026) | Airalo |
| EU roaming data growth since 2017 | 48-fold | European Commission |
| EU data per roaming subscriber, Q3 2024 | 1,704 MB/month | European Commission |
| EU wholesale data cap, 2027 | 1 euro per GB | European Commission |
| Roamers over fair use limits, Q3 2024 | 4.65% | European Commission |
| Operators planning travel eSIM wholesale plans | 47% | Kaleido Intelligence survey, 2026 |
| Operators without 5G SA roaming plan | 20% | Kaleido Intelligence, Q1 2026 |
| US carrier day pass price | $12/day (Verizon, AT&T) | Carrier plan pages, 2026 |
| International air passenger demand, August 2026 | -0.9% YoY | IATA |
Methodology and Sources
Every figure above was read during research for this article and traced to the organization that produced it. Where a primary page was blocked or paywalled, we used a named intermediary that cites the original study and say so below. Unattributed ‘roaming market size’ CAGR figures from report resellers were excluded.
- Juniper Research: Retail Roaming 2026-2031 press release, Retail Roaming report page, Global Mobile Roaming Market 2025-2029, Travel eSIMs Surge as Roaming Alternative (October 2025), 2030 travel eSIM forecast via TelcoMagazine
- Kaleido Intelligence: $70 billion roaming forecast (January 2026), Wholesale roaming survey (June 2026) and The Fast Mode coverage, Retail roaming roadmap 2026, Roaming market transition 2026 white paper, Travel eSIM bundle, MWC 2026 view
- FDM CCS Insight: Travel eSIM market takes flight (September 2025), Travel eSIM market continues to fly (February 2026); 2025 and 2026 usage, Sensor Tower and STL Partners figures via Travelers Today (August 2026)
- European Commission: Report on the review of the roaming market, COM(2025) 324, Staff working document SWD(2025) 164, Roaming review summary, Roaming policy page, Ukraine RLAH (January 2026), Moldova RLAH (January 2026), Western Balkans proposal (February 2026), Your Europe roaming costs
- BEREC: 32nd International Roaming Benchmark Data and Monitoring Report (March 2026), referenced for scope only
- Companies and carriers: Airalo 30 million users (June 2026), Holafly $500 million milestone (September 2025), Verizon international plans, AT&T International Day Pass, Vodafone UK roaming
- GSMA Intelligence: eSIM market progress and adoption to 2030 (July 2022, most recent available data for the 76% forecast)
- IATA: Air passenger demand, August 2026
- Data watch: Juniper’s own outlook conflicts across editions, from 13.4 billion growing 56% to 2029 (January 2025) to $15.6 billion shrinking to $11.3 billion by 2031 (October 2026); the October report page shows 11.5 billion for 2031 while the press release says 11.3 billion, and we cite the press release. Travel eSIM market sizes vary widely by definition: $1.8 billion in 2025 (Juniper, package revenue), $3.8 billion (Kaleido, retail spend forecast) and 649 million pounds (STL Partners, via Travelers Today); Kaleido’s 2025 traveller penetration of 12% is a forecast made during that year. Kaleido’s $70 billion includes wholesale revenue and is not comparable with retail-only figures. EU traffic data stops at Q3 2024 because BEREC’s 32nd report figures are in spreadsheet annexes we could not read; the 2023 Eurobarometer roamer share and the 2022 GSMA Intelligence eSIM forecast are older baselines. Ofcom, GSMA and UN Tourism pages blocked automated access (HTTP 403), so UK regulator data, GSMA roaming figures and international tourist arrivals were not used. Carrier prices are list prices on the dates accessed and change frequently.
Last updated: October 3, 2026. We update this roundup quarterly, and the next refresh is expected when BEREC publishes its 33rd International Roaming Benchmark report and Kaleido Intelligence releases its next six-monthly Roaming Data Hub update.