Starlink Mobile passed 10 million direct-to-cell subscribers and more than 16 million unique users by March 2026, yet satellite traffic was only about 0.0002% of T-Mobile’s network usage in mid-2026. That gap is the defining statistic of the category: reach is scaling faster than use. The partnership base is wide, with 110 operator groups tied to satellite players and covering 67% of global mobile connections (GSMA Intelligence, October 2025), and the money is serious, from SpaceX’s 17 billion dollar EchoStar spectrum purchase to Amazon’s roughly 11.6 billion dollar deal for Globalstar. What is still missing is the service people expect from a phone: native voice calls from space. For the broadband side of the same constellation, see our Starlink satellite internet statistics. We aggregated data from SpaceX, T-Mobile, AST SpaceMobile SEC filings, GSMA Intelligence, Analysys Mason (which absorbed NSR), Skylo, KDDI, One NZ, the FCC, Ofcom and the other primary sources listed in the methodology.
TL;DR
- Starlink Mobile surpassed 10 million subscribers and 16 million unique users (SpaceX executives at MWC 2026, via SDxCentral, March 2026).
- Satellite was about 0.0002% of T-Mobile network usage, 0.0003% at the summer peak (T-Mobile Q2 2026 earnings call).
- 110 operator groups have satellite partnerships, covering 67% of mobile connections (GSMA Intelligence, October 2025).
- Operators with live satellite services nearly doubled from 16 to 28 in a year (GSMA Intelligence, October 2025).
- D2D market: 0.57 billion dollars in 2025, 2.64 billion forecast by 2030 at 35.6% CAGR (MarketsandMarkets, October 2025).
- More than 100 billion dollars in cumulative D2D and IoT revenue forecast by 2034 (Novaspace, December 2025).
- AST SpaceMobile has 13 BlueBirds in orbit and a backlog of about 1.30 billion dollars (AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 results).
- NTT Docomo’s Starlink Direct reached 5 million subscribers about two months after its April 27, 2026 launch (Light Reading, July 2026).
- One NZ customers sent more than 7 million satellite texts in the service’s first year (One NZ, December 2025).
- Skylo has over 10 million activated devices on its NTN network (Skylo, October 2025).
- 82% of subscribers considering a switch are interested in D2D messaging, but only 30% would pay extra (Analysys Mason consumer survey, June 2025).
- Amazon agreed to buy Globalstar for 90 dollars per share, about 11.6 billion dollars, with D2D deployment from 2028 (Globalstar 8-K, April 2026).
1. Market Size and Revenue Forecasts
The forecasts disagree by an order of magnitude because they measure different things. MarketsandMarkets sizes the direct-to-device market at 0.57 billion dollars in 2025, rising to 2.64 billion by 2030 at a 35.6% CAGR (MarketsandMarkets, October 2025), and expects IoT, not phones, to dominate. Fortune Business Insights lands lower on 2025 (407.4 million dollars) but runs longer, to 3.26 billion by 2034. Both describe a small, annual services market.
The big numbers are cumulative. Novaspace forecasts more than 100 billion dollars in cumulative D2D and IoT revenue by 2034, nearly 70 billion of it from direct-to-phone services, and expects satellite operators to capture more than half. Analysys Mason, which acquired NSR, is the cautious voice: its June 2025 perspective puts the direct revenue from emergency alerts and messaging at only ‘a couple of hundred million dollars per year globally’, and says the multi-billion market arrives only when voice and data scale. The real near-term value, it argues, is churn reduction.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| D2D market size, 2025 | 0.57 billion dollars | MarketsandMarkets, D2D Market Report, October 2025 |
| D2D market forecast, 2030 | 2.64 billion dollars (35.6% CAGR) | MarketsandMarkets, October 2025 |
| D2D satellite connectivity market, 2025 / 2026 | 407.4 million / 558.1 million dollars | Fortune Business Insights, D2D Satellite Connectivity Market |
| D2D satellite connectivity forecast, 2034 | 3.26 billion dollars (24.7% CAGR, 2026-2034) | Fortune Business Insights |
| North America share of 2025 market | 221.9 million dollars | Fortune Business Insights |
| Cumulative D2D and IoT revenue by 2034 | More than 100 billion dollars | Novaspace, December 2025 |
| Of which direct-to-phone / satellite cellular IoT | Nearly 70 billion / more than 16 billion dollars | Novaspace, December 2025 |
| Direct revenue from satellite alerts and messaging | A couple of hundred million dollars per year globally | Analysys Mason, June 2025 |
Context note: NSR (now part of Analysys Mason) put the cumulative MNO opportunity at 93.1 billion dollars over ten years in a March 2023 perspective, which is older than three years and shown here only as a baseline (most recent available NSR public figure).
2. Starlink Direct to Cell: Huge Reach, Thin Usage
SpaceX built the largest D2D network fastest. The first Direct to Cell satellites launched in January 2024, the first SMS test worked within nine days, and by February 2025 the constellation exceeded 400 satellites, using partner LTE spectrum in the 1.6 to 2.7 GHz range (SpaceX, Starlink Direct to Cell service now available). By March 2026 Starlink SVP Michael Nicolls said the first-generation constellation of 650 satellites was fully deployed across five continents, and Starlink Mobile had passed 10 million subscribers and 16 million unique users (SDxCentral, March 2026).
Usage tells a quieter story. On T-Mobile’s Q2 2026 earnings call, management said satellite was about 0.0002% of network usage, ‘three zeros and a two’, reaching 0.0003% in the summer peak (T-Mobile Q2 2026 earnings call transcript), and called it a complementary category that will become table stakes. Satellite texting is insurance: rarely used, highly valued in the moment. The emergency figures make the point, with 4.4 million people connected during disasters, including more than 400,000 during the Palisades Fire.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| First-generation D2D constellation | 650 satellites, fully deployed after 18 months | SpaceX (Michael Nicolls) via SDxCentral, March 2026 |
| Starlink Mobile subscribers / unique users | 10 million / 16 million | SpaceX at MWC 2026 via SDxCentral |
| Kyivstar (Ukraine) Starlink Mobile subscribers | 3 million | SpaceX via SDxCentral, March 2026 |
| People connected in emergencies and disasters | 4.4 million | SpaceX (Gwynne Shotwell) via SDxCentral |
| Palisades Fire: people connected / texts / alerts | 400,000+ / 250,000+ / 150+ WEAs | SpaceX via SDxCentral |
| T-Satellite beta sign-ups / messages | 1.8 million / more than 1 million | T-Mobile via Broadband Breakfast, July 2025 |
| Satellite share of T-Mobile network usage | About 0.0002% (0.0003% summer peak) | T-Mobile Q2 2026 earnings call |
| SpaceX purchase of EchoStar AWS-4 and H-block spectrum | About 17 billion dollars (8.5 billion cash + 8.5 billion stock) | EchoStar press release, September 8, 2025 |
T-Mobile launched T-Satellite commercially on July 23, 2025 with more than 657 direct-to-cell satellites in orbit (Broadband Breakfast). The EchoStar spectrum deal also includes about 2 billion dollars of EchoStar interest payments funded by SpaceX through November 2027, and the spectrum feeds a second-generation constellation of about 1,200 satellites that SpaceX expects to start launching in mid-2027.
3. Carrier Rollouts: Japan, New Zealand and the Partnership Map
The fastest adoption numbers come from Japan, where terrain makes coverage gaps obvious. au’s terrestrial network reaches over 99.9% of the population but only about 60% of the land area, and au Starlink Direct passed 1 million users by July 2025, three months after launch, while cutting SMS delivery from up to 2 minutes to under 30 seconds (KDDI, July 2025). NTT Docomo went further: its Starlink Direct, launched April 27, 2026 at no charge, reached 5 million subscribers in about two months, across 89 compatible models and a base of 92 million subscribers (Light Reading, July 2026).
Free, automatic enrollment explains most of these subscriber counts. One NZ shows what usage looks like when the service is bundled: more than 7 million texts in year one from more than 700,000 eligible customers, covering about 40% of New Zealand’s landmass beyond terrestrial reach (One NZ, December 2025). Globally, GSMA Intelligence counts 110 operator groups with satellite partnerships, covering 67% of mobile connections (GSMA Intelligence, October 2025).
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Operator groups with active satellite partnerships | 110 (up from 91), September 2025 | GSMA Intelligence, October 2025 |
| Share of global mobile connections covered by those operators | 67% (up from 61%) | GSMA Intelligence, October 2025 |
| Operators with live satellite services | 28 (up from 16 in a year) | GSMA Intelligence, October 2025 |
| D2D-focused share of telco-satellite partnerships | 58% (up from 45%) | GSMA Intelligence, October 2025 |
| au Starlink Direct users | More than 1 million (July 2025) | KDDI, July 2025 |
| NTT Docomo Starlink Direct subscribers | 5 million about two months after April 27, 2026 launch | Light Reading, July 2026 |
| One NZ satellite texts sent in first year | More than 7 million | One NZ, December 2025 |
| One NZ eligible customers / compatible devices | More than 700,000 / 70+ | One NZ, December 2025 |
Context note: One NZ said satellite texting volumes rose 300% during severe weather events. GSMA Intelligence also reports early evidence of ARPU uplift of up to 20% from satellite bundles, against 5% to 8% expected in its 2024 survey. Our 5G adoption statistics cover the terrestrial networks these services extend.
4. AST SpaceMobile: Building Broadband From Space
AST SpaceMobile is the bet that satellites can act like full cell towers, voice and broadband included, not just texting relays. Its Q2 2026 results reported 13 BlueBird spacecraft in orbit, six launched within 50 days, and about 1.30 billion dollars in contracted revenue (AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 8-K). Revenue more than doubled quarter on quarter to 31.5 million dollars, still small against full-year guidance of 150 to 200 million.
The regulatory gate opened in April 2026, when the FCC granted AST commercial authority for a 248-satellite constellation using low-band spectrum between 700 and 900 MHz leased from AT&T and Verizon (Via Satellite, April 2026). The license requires 124 satellites by August 2, 2030. The partner list (over 60 MNOs covering more than 3 billion subscribers) is large; the open question is how fast satellites reach orbit, after a Blue Origin launch failure earlier in 2026 that cost the company BlueBird 7.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| BlueBird satellites in orbit | 13 (Q2 2026) | AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 results |
| Target satellites in orbit by end of 2026 | About 45 | AST SpaceMobile Q1 and Q2 2026 results |
| Revenue Q1 / Q2 2026 | 14.7 million / 31.5 million dollars | AST SpaceMobile 8-K filings, 2026 |
| Full-year 2026 revenue guidance | 150 to 200 million dollars | AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 results |
| Contracted revenue backlog | About 1.30 billion dollars | AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 results |
| MNO partners / subscribers covered | Over 60 / over 3 billion | AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 results |
| Pro forma cash, June 30, 2026 | Over 3.7 billion dollars | AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 results |
| FCC-authorized constellation / milestone | 248 satellites; 124 by August 2, 2030 | FCC grant via Via Satellite, April 2026 |
Context note: AST expects Block 2 satellites to deliver peak data rates approaching 200 Mbps, after demonstrating 98.9 Mbps peaks (Q1 2026 8-K), and is preparing a beta service in 2026 with an initial 3,000 digital cells. Verizon signed a definitive agreement in October 2025 for service in the continental US and Hawaii starting in 2026 (Mobile World Live).
5. Satellite Voice: MSS Networks, Standards and the Road to Calls
Voice is the line between a safety feature and a phone service, and it is not crossed yet. In mid-2025 Analysys Mason wrote that no D2D system delivered voice or data commercially beyond text messaging and location sharing, and noted that Starlink’s IP-based architecture means satellite voice would be VoIP rather than VoLTE (Analysys Mason, June 2025). That matters for operators that just moved all voice onto IMS, a shift covered in our VoLTE and VoNR deployment statistics.
The standards camp is moving toward calls first. Skylo, which runs on licensed MSS spectrum and 3GPP NTN, introduced a voice gateway in August 2025 that translates the satellite link into SIP/RTP for carrier cores, claiming more than 10x better data efficiency than existing cellular calling, after a 3GPP Release 20 work item was approved in June 2025 (Skylo, August 2025). On the Starlink side, KDDI signed Asia’s first Starlink Mobile V2 agreement in 2026, targeting native voice calls over satellite by the end of 2027 (KDDI, September 2026).
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Skylo activated devices | 5 million (May 2025), 8 million (August 2025), 10 million+ (October 2025) | Analysys Mason, June 2025; Skylo, August and October 2025 |
| Skylo coverage | 36 countries, 60 million square kilometers | Skylo and Semtech, October 2025 |
| Skylo voice gateway data efficiency | Greater than 10x vs existing cellular calling | Skylo, August 2025 |
| Apple Emergency SOS via satellite launch | November 15, 2022 (US and Canada) | Apple Newsroom, November 2022 |
| Apple satellite message time in clear conditions | As little as 15 seconds | Apple Newsroom, November 2022 |
| Apple funding of Globalstar | 450 million (2022), 1.1 billion prepayment plus 400 million for 20% (2024) | Analysys Mason, June 2025 |
| Amazon offer for Globalstar | 90 dollars per share, about 11.6 billion dollars, close expected 2027 | Globalstar 8-K, April 2026 |
| KDDI Starlink Mobile V2 capability vs V1 | 100x, native voice targeted by end of 2027 | KDDI, September 2026 |
The Apple path is changing owners. Under the Amazon-Globalstar merger filing, Amazon Leo will keep iPhone 14 and later satellite features running and begin deploying its own D2D system in 2028. Globalstar’s Q1 2026 wholesale capacity revenue, from a single unnamed customer, rose to 46.3 million dollars from 36.7 million, on total revenue of 70.1 million (+17%). 3GPP Release 17 (2022) was the first release to add NTN, and Release 19 adds regenerative payloads with onboard base-station functions.
6. Regulation, Coverage Gaps and Willingness to Pay
Rules arrived before services. The FCC adopted the world’s first supplemental coverage from space (SCS) framework on March 14, 2024, letting satellite operators use leased terrestrial spectrum and requiring, on an interim basis, that SCS 911 calls be routed to a public safety answering point or an emergency call center (FCC press release). SpaceX received US commercial approval in November 2024; AST followed in April 2026. In the UK, Ofcom finalised its D2D framework in December 2025 for mobile spectrum below 3 GHz, granted the first licence variation in February 2026, and Virgin Media O2 plans a Starlink-based service in 2026 (Mobile News, December 2025).
Coverage is uneven by design. Analysys Mason’s May 2025 simulation found Starlink’s 598 first-generation D2D satellites gave 0% availability in Anchorage, 68.3% in Honolulu and about 94% in Maine and Kansas, while Globalstar stayed above 98% and Skylo’s geostationary network showed 100% under its footprint. Demand is real but cheap: 82% of subscribers considering a switch are interested in D2D messaging, yet only 30% of all respondents would pay extra. For how emergency calling works on the ground, see our 911 emergency call statistics.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCC SCS framework adopted | March 14, 2024 (world’s first) | FCC, FCC 24-28 |
| Ofcom D2D framework / first licence variation | December 2025 / February 2026 | Ofcom, via Mobile News and Bird and Bird D2D Regulatory Tracker, 2026 |
| Starlink D2D availability: Anchorage / Honolulu | 0% / 68.3% (101-second average gap) | Analysys Mason NCAT simulation, May 2025 |
| Starlink D2D availability: Portland ME / Lebanon KS | 94.2% / 94.5% | Analysys Mason NCAT simulation, May 2025 |
| Globalstar availability, same four sites | 98.4% to 99.9% | Analysys Mason NCAT simulation, May 2025 |
| Survey sample | 18,500 respondents in 18 countries | Analysys Mason consumer survey, 2024 |
| Interested in D2D messaging and would pay extra / would not pay | 30% / 42% | Analysys Mason consumer survey, 2024 |
| Japan land area without terrestrial au coverage | About 40% | KDDI, April 2026 |
Context note: the availability simulation used Starlink’s satellite count as of May 2025 and was commissioned by Skylo, a competitor; Analysys Mason notes availability will improve as more satellites launch. The survey shares are from a 2024 fieldwork wave published in 2025.
Summary: Direct-to-Cell Satellite Voice and Messaging by the Numbers
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Starlink Mobile subscribers | 10 million+ | SpaceX via SDxCentral, March 2026 |
| Starlink Mobile unique users | 16 million+ | SpaceX via SDxCentral, March 2026 |
| Satellite share of T-Mobile network usage | About 0.0002% | T-Mobile Q2 2026 earnings call |
| First-generation Starlink D2D satellites | 650 | SpaceX, March 2026 |
| SpaceX-EchoStar spectrum deal | About 17 billion dollars | EchoStar, September 2025 |
| Operator groups with satellite partnerships | 110 (67% of connections) | GSMA Intelligence, October 2025 |
| Operators with live satellite services | 28 | GSMA Intelligence, October 2025 |
| D2D market 2025 / 2030 | 0.57 / 2.64 billion dollars | MarketsandMarkets, October 2025 |
| Cumulative D2D and IoT revenue by 2034 | 100 billion dollars+ | Novaspace, December 2025 |
| NTT Docomo Starlink Direct subscribers | 5 million (about two months after launch) | Light Reading, July 2026 |
| au Starlink Direct users | 1 million+ (July 2025) | KDDI |
| One NZ satellite texts, year one | 7 million+ | One NZ, December 2025 |
| AST SpaceMobile satellites in orbit | 13 | AST SpaceMobile, August 2026 |
| AST SpaceMobile contracted backlog | About 1.30 billion dollars | AST SpaceMobile, August 2026 |
| AST FCC-authorized constellation | 248 satellites | FCC via Via Satellite, April 2026 |
| Skylo activated devices | 10 million+ | Skylo, October 2025 |
| Amazon-Globalstar deal value | About 11.6 billion dollars (90 dollars per share) | Globalstar 8-K, April 2026 |
| Starlink D2D availability in Anchorage | 0% | Analysys Mason, May 2025 |
| Switch-considering subscribers interested in D2D messaging | 82% | Analysys Mason, June 2025 |
| Respondents willing to pay extra | 30% | Analysys Mason, June 2025 |
Methodology and Sources
Every figure was traced to the company, regulator or research firm that produced it. Several primary pages (T-Mobile newsroom, Ofcom, Business Wire, Federal Register) blocked automated access, so some figures were read through SEC copies of the same releases or trade-press reports that quote them; each is labeled with the original source. Undated subscriber claims circulating on vendor and listicle sites (including a 4 million figure for au Starlink Direct and country counts for Starlink Mobile) were excluded because we could not read them in a primary document.
- SpaceX: Starlink Direct to Cell service now available (February 2025); MWC 2026 statements via SDxCentral
- T-Mobile: Q2 2026 earnings call transcript; T-Satellite launch via Broadband Breakfast
- EchoStar: Spectrum sale and commercial agreement with SpaceX (September 2025)
- AST SpaceMobile: Q2 2026 results (SEC 8-K), Q1 2026 results (SEC 8-K); FCC grant via Via Satellite and SDxCentral; Verizon agreement via Mobile World Live
- GSMA Intelligence: Reaching for the sky (October 2025)
- Analysys Mason (incl. former NSR): MNOs and OEMs need to adopt satellite D2D now (June 2025, commissioned by Skylo), Satellite D2D: a new differentiator for mobile operators (March 2023)
- Market sizing: MarketsandMarkets D2D press release (October 2025), Fortune Business Insights, Novaspace (December 2025)
- Carriers: KDDI 1 million users (July 2025), KDDI roaming expansion (April 2026), KDDI Starlink Mobile V2 (September 2026), One NZ year one (December 2025), NTT Docomo via Light Reading (July 2026)
- Skylo: Voice gateway (August 2025), Semtech and Skylo (October 2025)
- Apple, Globalstar and Amazon: Apple Emergency SOS via satellite (November 2022), Amazon-Globalstar merger release (SEC 8-K, April 2026), Globalstar Q1 2026 results (SEC 8-K)
- Regulators and standards: FCC SCS press release (March 2024), Ofcom D2D decision via Mobile News (December 2025), 3GPP NTN in Rel-17 and Rel-18
- Data watch: Subscriber counts are not comparable. Starlink Mobile’s 10 million and Docomo’s 5 million are company-reported and largely reflect free, automatic eligibility, while T-Mobile’s 0.0002% usage share measures traffic; no source publishes active monthly satellite users or satellite voice minutes. Market sizes conflict sharply (MarketsandMarkets 0.57 billion vs Fortune Business Insights 0.41 billion dollars for 2025; Novaspace’s 100 billion dollar figure is cumulative to 2034), so we cite each with its own label. The Analysys Mason June 2025 paper was commissioned by Skylo, and its availability simulation reflects Starlink’s May 2025 constellation; it also gives Globalstar’s fleet as 24 satellites in one passage and 31 in another. AST’s Q1 2026 revenue appears as 14.7 million dollars in its 8-K and differently in some news summaries; we use the filing. The NSR 93.1 billion dollar estimate (2023), Apple’s 2022 launch details and the FCC’s 2024 SCS order are older baselines (most recent available data). The Ofcom figures were read through trade coverage because Ofcom’s pages blocked access.
Last updated: October 3, 2026. We update this roundup quarterly, and the next refresh is expected when AST SpaceMobile reports Q3 2026 results, T-Mobile reports Q3 2026 earnings, and GSMA Intelligence publishes its next Satellite and NTN tracker.